Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America
Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1139601
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发表时间：
2007-05-25
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Naik, Naomi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Seager, Richard;Ting, Mingfang;Naik, Naomi
人为气候变化对北美西南部干旱区水文气候的影响关系到水资源的配置和区域发展进程。在这里，我们表明在气候模型中有一个广泛的共识，即该地区将在21世纪干燥，并且向更干旱的气候过渡应该已经在进行中。如果这些模型是正确的，那么在几年到几十年的时间框架内，最近几年的干旱、沙尘暴和20世纪50年代的干旱的干旱程度将成为美国西南部的新气候学。
How anthropogenic climate change will affect hydroclimate in the arid regions of southwestern North America has implications for the allocation of water resources and the course of regional development. Here we show that there is a broad consensus among climate models that this region will dry in the 21st century and that the transition to a more arid climate should already be under way. If these models are correct, the levels of aridity of the recent multiyear drought or the Dust Bowl and the 1950s droughts will become the new climatology of the American Southwest within a time frame of years to decades.