How does climate change influence demographic processes of widespread species? Lessons from the comparative analysis of contrasted populations of roe deer
How does climate change influence demographic processes of widespread species? Lessons from the comparative analysis of contrasted populations of roe deer
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DOI：
10.1111/ele.12059
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发表时间：
2013-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Bonenfant, Christophe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gaillard, Jean-Michel;Hewison, A. J. Mark;Bonenfant, Christophe
人群如何应对气候变化取决于生活史、资源可用性和变化强度之间的相互作用。狍子是收入饲养者，对繁殖的分配水平很高，因此在春季受到优质资源可用性的强烈限制。我们调查了最近的气候变化如何影响这种广泛分布的物种的两个种群的人口统计过程。在研究中，春天开始得越来越早，这使我们能够确定两个具有对比春天开始的时期。早春时，两个种群的生长速度都较慢。正如对长寿和迭代物种的预期一样，成虫的生存对种群增长的潜在影响最大。使用扰动分析，我们测量了人口统计参数对观察到的人口增长变化的相对贡献，无论是在不同时期和人口之间还是在不同时期和人口之间。在不同时期内，关键参数的确定取决于增长率的变化，但招募的变化是对比春早时期之间观察到的人口变化的主要驱动因素。我们的结果表明，森林栖息地的狍子目前无法应对越来越早的春天。我们假设它们应该将分布转移到更丰富、更异质的景观，以抵消关键饲养阶段的能量需求。
How populations respond to climate change depends on the interplay between life history, resource availability, and the intensity of the change. Roe deer are income breeders, with high levels of allocation to reproduction, and are hence strongly constrained by the availability of high quality resources during spring. We investigated how recent climate change has influenced demographic processes in two populations of this widespread species. Spring began increasingly earlier over the study, allowing us to identify 2 periods with contrasting onset of spring. Both populations grew more slowly when spring was early. As expected for a long-lived and iteroparous species, adult survival had the greatest potential impact on population growth. Using perturbation analyses, we measured the relative contribution of the demographic parameters to observed variation in population growth, both within and between periods and populations. Within periods, the identity of the critical parameter depended on the variance in growth rate, but variation in recruitment was the main driver of observed demographic change between periods of contrasting spring earliness. Our results indicate that roe deer in forest habitats cannot currently cope with increasingly early springs. We hypothesise that they should shift their distribution to richer, more heterogeneous landscapes to offset energetic requirements during the critical rearing stage.