Application of multi-criteria decision-making to risk prioritisation in tidal energy developments
Application of multi-criteria decision-making to risk prioritisation in tidal energy developments
复制标题
多标准决策在潮汐能开发风险优先级中的应用
DOI：
10.1080/14786451.2014.880438
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
A. Ioannou
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Kolios;G. Read;A. Ioannou
本文提出了一个分析多标准分析的风险优先次序的潮汐能项目的发展。在对整个项目的风险和英国的相关利益相关者进行基本识别后，通过政治、经济、社会、技术、法律的和环境分析进行分类，相关问卷为每种风险提供评分，并为每个不同部门提供相应的权重。采用一种扩展的技术，通过与理想解决方案的相似性以及基于所获得的数据的加权和方法来确定优先顺序，根据其关键程度对所识别的风险进行排名，提请业界注意减轻得分较高的风险。这两种方法都进行了修改，在分析的不同阶段取平均值，以观察对最终风险排名的影响。还对结果进行了敏感性分析，涉及对参与者所认为的专门知识给予的加权系数，无论使用线性、平方或平方根回归，都得到不同的结果。研究结果表明，学术界和工业界对最关键风险的看法存在分歧。
This paper presents an analytical multi-criterion analysis for the prioritisation of risks for the development of tidal energy projects. After a basic identification of risks throughout the project and relevant stakeholders in the UK, classified through a political, economic, social, technological, legal and environmental analysis, relevant questionnaires provided scores to each risk and corresponding weights for each of the different sectors. Employing an extended technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution as well as the weighted sum method based on the data obtained, the risks identified are ranked based on their criticality, drawing attention of the industry in mitigating the ones scoring higher. Both methods were modified to take averages at different stages of the analysis in order to observe the effects on the final risk ranking. A sensitivity analysis of the results was also carried out with regard to the weighting factors given to the perceived expertise of participants, with different results being obtained whether a linear, squared or square root regression is used. Results of the study show that academics and industry have conflicting opinions with regard to the perception of the most critical risks.