Background conditions influence the decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions
Background conditions influence the decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions
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DOI：
10.1002/jgrd.50229
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发表时间：
2013-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Zanchettin;O. Bothe;H. Graf;S. Lorenz;J. Luterbacher;C. Timmreck;J. Jungclaus
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文献类型：
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作者：
D. Zanchettin;O. Bothe;H. Graf;S. Lorenz;J. Luterbacher;C. Timmreck;J. Jungclaus
背景条件有可能影响气候对强烈热带火山爆发的反应。作为一个案例研究，我们系统地评估了1815年4月坦博拉火山爆发的十年气候响应，在一组全复杂性地球系统模式模拟。评估了三个10成员模拟集合，它们描述了世纪早期在（1）完全强迫条件下的气候演变，（2）火山强迫条件下的气候演变，（3）火山强迫条件下的气候演变。模拟的坦博拉火山爆发引起的辐射扰动的幅度只在很小程度上取决于背景条件。相比之下，模拟的近地表大气，特别是海洋动力学在不同背景条件下爆发后的演变显着不同。特别是，在北大西洋/北冰洋的海洋热输送和海冰的后坦博拉年代际演变中发现了很大的集合间差异。它们揭示了依赖于背景条件的多种反应途径的存在。因此，背景条件不仅是爆发后年代际气候变率的加性噪声来源，而且还积极影响爆发后年代际演变所涉及的机制。因此，在未来的基于集合的数值研究中，应适当考虑背景条件。
Background conditions have the potential to influence the climate response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions. As a case study, we systematically assess the decadal climate response to the April 1815 Tambora eruption in a set of full‐complexity Earth system model simulations. Three 10‐member simulation ensembles are evaluated which describe the climate evolution of the early 19th century under (1) full‐forcing conditions, (2) volcanic forcing–only conditions, and (3) volcanic forcing–only conditions excluding events preceding the Tambora eruption. The amplitude of the simulated radiative perturbation induced by the Tambora eruption depends only marginally on the background conditions. In contrast, simulated near‐surface atmospheric and especially oceanic dynamics evolve significantly differently after the eruption under different background conditions. In particular, large inter‐ensemble differences are found in the post‐Tambora decadal evolution of oceanic heat transport and sea ice in the North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean. They reveal the existence of multiple response pathways that depend on background conditions. Background conditions are therefore not merely a source of additive noise for post‐eruption decadal climate variability but actively influence the mechanisms involved in the post‐eruption decadal evolution. Hence, background conditions should appropriately be accounted for in future ensemble‐based numerical studies.