Delay in Reporting Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (Aids)
Delay in Reporting Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (Aids)
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延迟报告获得性免疫缺陷综合症（艾滋病）
DOI：
10.3386/w2278
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发表时间：
1987
期刊：
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
J. Harris
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Harris
截至1987年3月31日，美国疾病控制中心报告了33,350例获得性免疫缺陷综合征。然而，到那时，医生实际上已经诊断出42670例病例。造成这种差异的原因是，向公共卫生当局报告艾滋病病例的工作严重拖延。估计70%的病例在诊断后两个月或更长时间报告；大约23%的人在7个月或更长时间后才报告；大约5%的人需要三年以上的时间才能进入市场。此外，延迟的概率分布一直在向右移动，自1986年中期以来，延迟的中位数增加了0.6个月。根据报告病例的数据和报告延误的估计概率分布，我重建了1982年1月至1987年3月期间艾滋病的实际发病率。该流行病的翻倍时间从1982年的6个月左右下降到1986年的15-16个月。
As of March 31, 1987, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control had reported 33,350 cases of acquired immune deficiency syndrome. Yet by that date, physicians had actually diagnosed 42,670 cases. The difference arises from significant delays in the reporting of AIDS cases to public health authorities. An estimated 70% of cases are reported two or more months after diagnosis; about 23% are reported seven or more months later; and about 5% take more than three years to come in. Moreover, the probability distribution of delays has been shifting to the right, with the median delay increasing by 0.6 months since mid-1986. From the data on reported cases and the estimated probability distribution of reporting delays, I reconstruct the actual incidence of AIDS from January 1982 through March 1987. The doubling time of the epidemic fell from about 6 months in 1982 to 15-16 months in 1986.