Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment
Decomposing the Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment
复制标题
分解周期性失业的来龙去脉
DOI：
10.1111/obes.12133
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Mathias Sinning
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ronald Bachmann;Mathias Sinning
本文分析了就业和失业人口的社会经济和人口构成对经济周期不同阶段劳动力市场动态的贡献。利用当前人口调查（CPS）的个人水平数据，我们将经济上升和衰退之间就业状态转换率的差异分解为构成效应和行为效应。研究发现，总体构成效应对失业流出率的周期性影响较小，但失业持续时间的影响很大。相反，构成效应在很大程度上抑制了失业流入量的周期性。我们进一步观察到，在经济衰退的过程中，构成效应对更高失业率的最初积极贡献变成了负贡献。
This paper analyzes the contribution of the socioeconomic and demographic composition of the pool of employed and unemployed individuals to the dynamics of the labor market in different phases of the business cycle. Using individual level data from the Current Population Survey (CPS), we decompose differences in employment status transition rates between economic upswings and downturns into composition effects and behavioral effects. We find that overall composition effects play a minor role for the cyclicality of the unemployment outflow rate, although the contribution of the duration of unemployment is significant. In contrast, composition effects dampen the cyclicality of the unemployment inflow rate considerably. We further observe that the initially positive contribution of composition effects to a higher unemployment outflow rate turns negative over the course of the recession.