Containing 2019-nCoV (Wuhan) coronavirus
Containing 2019-nCoV (Wuhan) coronavirus
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DOI：
10.1007/s10729-020-09504-6
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发表时间：
2020-03-07
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Kaplan, Edward H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kaplan, Edward H.
新型冠状病毒2019- ncov于2019年12月首次出现在中国武汉。虽然大多数最初病例与华南海鲜批发市场有关，但已证实人与人之间的传播。鉴于疫苗至少在一年内无法开发和部署，防止进一步传播依赖于遏制的标准原则，其中两项是隔离已知病例和隔离被认为有高风险接触的人。本说明介绍了在疫情暴发初期评估社区内病例隔离和检疫有效性的概率模型，并附有基于武汉早期观察结果的插图。
The novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV first appeared in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. While most of the initial cases were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, person-to-person transmission has been verified. Given that a vaccine cannot be developed and deployed for at least a year, preventing further transmission relies upon standard principles of containment, two of which are the isolation of known cases and the quarantine of persons believed at high risk of exposure. This note presents probability models for assessing the effectiveness of case isolation and quarantine within a community during the initial phase of an outbreak with illustrations based on early observations from Wuhan.