Economic and social consequences of human mobility restrictions under COVID-19
Economic and social consequences of human mobility restrictions under COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2007658117
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发表时间：
2020-07-07
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Pammolli, Fabio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bonaccorsi, Giovanni;Pierri, Francesco;Pammolli, Fabio
为了应对冠状病毒病2019年(新冠肺炎)大流行，几个国家的政府已经实施了封锁限制，以降低感染率。在这里，我们对Facebook提供的意大利近乎实时的流动性数据进行大规模分析，以调查封锁战略如何影响个人和地方政府的经济状况。我们将流动性的变化建模为类似于自然灾害的外源冲击。我们确定了流动限制对意大利公民产生影响的两种方式。首先，我们发现，在财政能力较高的城市，封锁的影响更大。其次，我们发现了隔离效应的证据，因为在不平等程度较高的城市和个人人均收入较低的城市，流动性收缩更为严重。我们的结果突显了封锁的社会代价和前所未有的严峻挑战：一方面，危机导致国家和地方政府的财政收入大幅减少；另一方面，需要做出重大的财政努力，以维持最脆弱的个人，并缓解封锁造成的贫困和不平等加剧。
In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several national governments have applied lockdown restrictions to reduce the infection rate. Here we perform a massive analysis on near-real-time Italian mobility data provided by Facebook to investigate how lockdown strategies affect economic conditions of individuals and local governments. We model the change in mobility as an exogenous shock similar to a natural disaster. We identify two ways through which mobility restrictions affect Italian citizens. First, we find that the impact of lockdown is stronger in municipalities with higher fiscal capacity. Second, we find evidence of a segregation effect, since mobility contraction is stronger in municipalities in which inequality is higher and for those where individuals have lower income per capita. Our results highlight both the social costs of lockdown and a challenge of unprecedented intensity: On the one hand, the crisis is inducing a sharp reduction of fiscal revenues for both national and local governments; on the other hand, a significant fiscal effort is needed to sustain the most fragile individuals and to mitigate the increase in poverty and inequality induced by the lockdown.