Forecasting the epicenter of a future major earthquake
Forecasting the epicenter of a future major earthquake
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1423684112
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发表时间：
2015-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Qinghua Huang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Qinghua Huang
尽管地震预报是一个极具争议性的问题，但科学家们仍在继续寻找有价值的地震前兆（EQ）。在各种前兆中，地震活动变化在中期预报研究中占有重要地位，并经过了长期的检验(1, 2)。尽管对地震电信号[SES，地球电场的低频（≤1 Hz）瞬态变化]等短期前兆存在争议（3），但在SES数据的长期观测过程中积累的知识得出了SES活动的平均前置时间为几个月的结论（图1）（4、5）。这样的结论反映了系统在出现主要EQ之前存在一个关键的时间尺度（例如几个月），在这个时间尺度内系统进入关键阶段（6）。受这一结论的启发，自然时间分析揭示了复杂时间序列中隐藏的属性（7），揭示了地震活动阶次参数的波动至少在主要EQ之前几个月出现（图1）（8）。在 PNAS 中，Sarlis 等人。 (9) 提出了一种通过地震活动的自然时间分析来预测未来主要 EQ 震中的新方法。
Although earthquake forecasting is a highly controversial issue, scientists are continuing to find valuable precursors of earthquakes (EQs). Among various precursors, seismicity changes play an important role in intermediate-term forecast study and have been tested for a long period (1, 2). Despite the debates (3) on short-term precursors, such as seismic electric signals [SES, low frequency (≤1 Hz) transient changes of the Earth’s electric field], the knowledge accumulated during the long-term observations of SES data have led to the conclusion that the average lead time of SES activities is a few months (Fig. 1) (4, 5). Such a conclusion reflects that there exists a crucial time scale (e.g., a few months) at which the system enters the critical stage before a major EQ (6). Inspired by this conclusion, natural time analysis, which uncovers hidden properties in complex time series (7), has revealed that the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity exhibit a minimum of a few months before major EQs (Fig. 1) (8). In PNAS, Sarlis et al. (9) present a novel approach to forecasting the epicenter of a future major EQ from natural time analysis of seismicity.