Probabilistic estimation of storm erosion using analytical, semi-empirical, and process based storm erosion models
Probabilistic estimation of storm erosion using analytical, semi-empirical, and process based storm erosion models
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使用分析、半经验和基于过程的风暴侵蚀模型对风暴侵蚀进行概率估计
DOI：
10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.08.007
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
D. Roelvink
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
D. Callaghan;R. Ranasinghe;D. Roelvink
当代基于风险的沿海区管理框架越来越多地寻求对沿海风暴侵蚀量的概率估计。这种估计可以通过概率模型获得，该模型包含计算风暴侵蚀的结构功能元素（即风暴侵蚀模型）。直观地说，嵌入概率模型的风暴侵蚀模型越复杂，概率风暴侵蚀量就应该越准确和稳健，尽管这会带来显著的额外计算成本。本研究评估了三个风暴侵蚀模型的相对性能，不同程度的复杂性时，嵌入在卡拉汉等人。（2008 a）估计风暴侵蚀的概率框架。测试的风暴模型包括：分析Kriebel和Dean（1993）模型、更复杂的半解析S Beach模型和高度复杂的基于过程的X Beach模型。Kriebel和Dean（1993）和SBeachare在概率模拟中使用了“在线”方法，而XBeachis使用了一种创新的离线制表方法，以便于合理的计算时间。SBeachis对中等范围的侵蚀事件进行了校准，而XBeachis对同一单一侵蚀事件以及30年研究期间所有测量的风暴侵蚀量进行了验证。Kriebel和Dean（1993）模型使用推荐的参数设置，因此不需要校准。当SBeach和XBeach都针对单个侵蚀事件进行校准时，SBeach提供了风暴侵蚀的最准确和最可靠的概率估计。然而，当XBeachis校准使用整个侵蚀量数据系列，结果显着提高的准确性和鲁棒性的概率估计风暴侵蚀量获得与XBeachto与那些获得与SBeach。然而，只有XBeach预测风暴侵蚀量时，在垂直线性轴上绘制的跨海岸海滩侵蚀量与水平对数轴上的重现期相比时，具有物理上更合理的下凹尾部形状行为。（在标准的单处理器上）当使用简单的Kriebel和Dean（1993）模型时大约是1天，而对于SBeach（在线）和XBeach（列表），模拟时间约为1000 h。然而，使用SBeach或XBeach可以获得的物理上更合理、更准确和更鲁棒的结果证明了额外的计算成本是合理的。
Probabilistic estimates for coastal storm erosion volumes are increasingly being sought by contemporary risk based coastal zone management frameworks. Such estimates can be obtained via probabilistic models that incorporate a structural function element which calculates storm erosion (i.e. storm erosion model). Intuitively, the more sophisticated the storm erosion model embedded in the probabilistic model, the more accurate and robust the probabilistic storm erosion volumes should be, albeit at significant additional computational cost. This study assesses the relative performance of three storm erosion models with varying levels of complexity when embedded within Callaghan et al.'s (2008a) probabilistic framework for estimating storm erosion. The storm models tested are: the analytical Kriebel and Dean (1993) model, the more complex semi-empiricalSBeachmodel and the highly complex and process-basedXBeachmodel.The probabilistic model is applied at data rich Narrabeen beach, Australia. Kriebel and Dean (1993) andSBeachare used ‘on-line’ in the probabilistic simulations, whileXBeachis used with an innovative off-line tabulation approach to facilitate reasonable computational times.SBeachis calibrated for a mid-range erosion event whileXBeachis validated for the same single erosion event as well as for all measured storm erosion volumes during the 30 year study period. The Kriebel and Dean (1993) model is used with recommended parameter settings and therefore does not require calibration.When bothSBeachandXBeachare calibrated against the single erosion event,SBeachprovides the most accurate and robust probabilistic estimates of storm erosion. However, whenXBeachis calibrated using the entire erosion volume data series, the results improve significantly raising the accuracy and robustness of the probabilistic estimates of storm erosion volumes obtained withXBeachto be on par with those obtained withSBeach. However, onlyXBeachpredicts storm erosion volumes with the physically more plausible behaviour of a downward concave tail shape when plotted as cross-shore beach-erosion volume on a vertical linear axis against return period on a horizontal logarithmic axis.The simulation time (on a standard single processor) when using the simple Kriebel and Dean (1993) model is about 1 day, whereas forSBeach(on-line) andXBeach(tabulation), the simulation time is about 1000 h. However, the physically more plausible and the more accurate and robust results that can be obtained withSBeachorXBeachjustifies the additional computational cost.