E-cigarette use as a predictor of cigarette smoking: results from a 1-year follow-up of a national sample of 12th grade students
E-cigarette use as a predictor of cigarette smoking: results from a 1-year follow-up of a national sample of 12th grade students
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DOI：
10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2016-053291
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发表时间：
2017-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Johnston, Lloyd D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Miech, Richard;Patrick, Megan E.;Johnston, Lloyd D.
目的在有吸烟和无吸烟经历的青少年中，前瞻性地研究电子烟对未来吸烟的预测作用。第二个目的是调查电子烟是否可以使年轻人对吸烟的危险脱敏。方法对具有全国代表性的监测未来研究的前瞻性纵向小组数据进行分析。这项分析基于347名12年级学生的随机抽样调查，这些学生在2014年完成了在校调查，并在一年后进行了复查。结果在12年级之前从未吸烟的年轻人中，最近的尿布在随访时报告过去一年吸烟的可能性超过4倍(相对风险(RR)=4.78)，即使是那些在基线时报告吸烟感知风险水平最高的年轻人也是如此。在过去吸烟但最近没有在基线水平吸烟的12年级学生中，在随访中最近使用尿布的可能性是过去12个月报告吸烟的可能性的两倍(RR=2.15)。在基线水平上，Vaping没有预测最近吸烟者的戒烟情况。在基准线上从不吸烟的人中，最近使用尿布的人远离香烟具有巨大危害风险的可能性要高出4倍以上(RR=4.73)，这一发现与脱敏过程一致。结论这些结果有助于支持越来越多的证据支持使用尿布是年轻人吸烟的单向桥梁。将电子烟作为未来吸烟的一个风险因素，是限制年轻人使用电子烟的强有力的、有科学依据的理由。
Objective To prospectively examine vaping as a predictor of future cigarette smoking among youth with and without previous cigarette smoking experience. A secondary aim is to investigate whether vaping may desensitise youth to the dangers of smoking.Methods Analysis of prospective longitudinal panel data from the nationally representative Monitoring the Future study. The analysis is based on 347 12th grade students who were part of a randomly selected subsample that completed in-school surveys in 2014 and were resurveyed 1-year later.Results Among youth who had never smoked a cigarette by 12th grade, baseline, recent vapers were more than 4 times (relative risk (RR)=4.78) more likely to report past-year cigarette smoking at follow-up, even among youth who reported the highest possible level of perceived risk for cigarette smoking at baseline. Among 12th grade students who had smoked in the past but had not recently smoked at baseline, recent vapers were twice (RR=2.15) as likely to report smoking in the past 12 months at the follow-up. Vaping did not predict cessation of smoking among recent smokers at baseline. Among never-smokers at baseline, recent vapers were more than 4 times (RR=4.73) more likely to move away from the perception of cigarettes as posing a great risk' of harm, a finding consistent with a desensitisation process.Conclusions These results contribute to the growing body of evidence supporting vaping as a one-way bridge to cigarette smoking among youth. Vaping as a risk factor for future smoking is a strong, scientifically-based rationale for restricting youth access to e-cigarettes.