Long Term Trend Analysis of River Flow and Climate in Northern Canada
Long Term Trend Analysis of River Flow and Climate in Northern Canada
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加拿大北部河流流量和气候的长期趋势分析
DOI：
10.3390/hydrology9110197
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Q. Hassan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Zaghloul;Ebrahim Ghaderpour;H. Dastour;B. Farjad;Anil K. Gupta;H. Eum;G. Achari;Q. Hassan
流域内水资源的变化会对生态系统、农业和生物多样性等产生重大影响。加拿大北部的盆地气候寒冷，最近的气候变化可能对这些盆地的水资源产生深远的影响。因此，研究水流量的长期变化趋势及其影响因素（如温度和降水）至关重要。本研究的重点是分析阿萨巴斯卡河流域（ARB）和和平河流域（PRB）的水流长期趋势。还研究了这些盆地内温度和降水的长期趋势。采用Mann-Kendall检验和Sen’s slope对加拿大水情调查提供的18个水文测量站的水流数据进行分析。此外，对Alberta Environment and Parks提供的1950-2019年ARB及其周边地区约10公里空间分辨率的混合气候数据进行了分析。对月、季、年尺度的水流量数据进行趋势分析，并与气温、降水、土地利用和土地覆被数据的趋势进行交叉检验。1950年以来，各流域整体气温呈上升趋势，降水呈不显著的减少趋势。自1956年以来，由于气温上升和随后积雪/冰川的缓慢融化，ARB上部的冬季水流一直在缓慢而稳定地增加。中下分区暖季流量到1981年呈下降趋势，之后又开始呈上升趋势。自2015年以来，中下游ARB暖季流量快速增加。在PRB中也观察到类似的趋势变化。近几十年来观测到的水流量的逐渐增加可能会持续到本世纪中叶，这对农业、林业、渔业和工业都是有益的。然而，气候和土地覆盖的变化可能会改变未来的水流趋势；因此，对未来几十年的用水有一个适当的管理计划是很重要的。
Changes in water resources within basins can significantly impact ecosystems, agriculture, and biodiversity, among others. Basins in northern Canada have a cold climate, and the recent changes in climate can have a profound impact on water resources in these basins. Therefore, it is crucial to study long term trends in water flow as well as their influential factors, such as temperature and precipitation. This study focused on analyzing long term trends in water flow across the Athabasca River Basin (ARB) and Peace River Basin (PRB). Long term trends in temperature and precipitation within these basins were also studied. Water flow data from 18 hydrometric stations provided by Water Survey of Canada were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope. In addition, hybrid climate data provided by Alberta Environment and Parks at approximately 10 km spatial resolution were analyzed for the ARB and its surrounding regions during 1950–2019. Trend analysis was performed on the water flow data on monthly, seasonal, and annual scales, and the results were cross-checked with trends in temperature and precipitation and land use and land cover data. The overall temperature across the basins has been increasing since 1950, while precipitation showed an insignificant decrease during this period. Winter water flow in the upper ARB has been slowly and steadily increasing since 1956 because of the rising temperatures and the subsequent slow melting of snowpacks/glaciers. The warm season flows in the middle and lower subregions declined up to 1981, then started to show an increasing trend. The middle and lower ARB exhibited a rapid increase in warm-season water flow since 2015. A similar trend change was also observed in the PRB. The gradual increase in water flow observed in the recent decades may continue by the mid-century, which is beneficial for agriculture, forestry, fishery, and industry. However, climate and land cover changes may alter the trend of water flow in the future; therefore, it is important to have a proper management plan for water usage in the next decades.