Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model
Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-016-1604-6
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发表时间：
2016-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Davies, Evan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kim, Son H.;Hejazi, Mohamad;Davies, Evan
水对于世界粮食供应、能源生产（包括生物能源和水力发电）以及电力系统冷却至关重要。水在世界许多地区已经稀缺，在社会试图同时减轻气候强迫和适应气候变化，并为更多和更繁荣的人口提供服务时，水可能成为一个严重的制约因素。许多研究表明，人口和经济增长以及气候变化对世界稀缺的淡水资源造成的压力越来越大。这项研究走得更远。我们使用全球变化评估模型来分析人口，经济增长，能源，土地和水资源之间的相互作用，同时在一个动态演变的系统中，所有索赔人对水资源的竞争要求-能源，土地和经济-与水资源的可用性-从可再生水，不可再生地下水和淡化水资源-在14个地缘政治地区，151个农业生态区和235个主要流域。我们发现，以前的估计全球水提取预测被高估。模型模拟表明，在某些流域，改变农业和能源活动比利用不可再生的地下水或淡化水更经济。这项研究强调了在综合评估模式中将水作为农业、能源和土地使用决定的一个约束因素的重要性，以及对全球应对水资源短缺问题的影响，特别是在农业商品贸易和土地使用决定方面。
Water is essential for the world's food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world's scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land, and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants-energy, land, and economy-are reconciled with water resource availability-from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater and desalinated water sources-across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. This study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in integrated assessment models and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.