Technological Discontinuities and Organizational Environments
Technological Discontinuities and Organizational Environments
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DOI：
10.2307/2392832
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发表时间：
1986-09
影响因子：
10.4
通讯作者：
M. Tushman;Philip W. Anderson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Tushman;Philip W. Anderson
研究技术进化的模式及其对环境条件的影响。为了证明技术是塑造组织运作环境的核心力量，提出了七个假设。这些假设是：(1)产品类别内的技术变革将以长时间的增量变化为特征，其间不时出现不连续性；（1a）技术不连续性要么是能力增强（建立在现有技能和专有知识的基础上），要么是能力破坏（从根本上需要新的技能和能力）；(2)能力破坏型技术变革和能力提升型技术变革的创新轨迹不同。能力破坏的不连续性将由新进入者引发，而能力增强的不连续性将由现有企业引发；(3)技术中断后的竞争不确定性高于技术中断前；(4)技术中断后的环境慷慨度（即资源可用性和对增长的支持）将高于技术中断前；(5)能力增强的不连续性将与进入-退出比率的降低和公司间销售变异性的降低相关（从而加强了产品领先地位，增加了进入壁垒）。这些模式将因破坏能力的不连续性而逆转；(6)连续的能力增强不连续性将与不确定性和丰富度的较小增加相关；(7)那些发起重大技术创新的组织将比同类产品中的其他公司具有更高的增长率。数据收集自美国公司的三个产品类别，国内定期客运航空运输，波特兰水泥制造和微型计算机制造，从利基市场开始的那一年到1980年。结果表明，在3个生态位开放后，共有6个能力增强型技术不连续和2个能力破坏型技术不连续。这些不连续性中的每一个都比增量技术事件对成本或性能的关键度量产生更大的影响。此外，除了在微型计算机中引入半导体存储器之后的一段时间外，经验丰富的行业观察家预测技术中断后需求的能力远不如中断之前。中断之后的需求增长明显高于中断之前，这对产品级需求产生了巨大影响。此外，在能力增强中断前的5年里，每一年的入职与离职比例都高于随后的5年，尽管这些差异在统计上都不显著。虽然市场在销售增长方面的变化是意料之中的，但研究发现，一些公司的销售呈爆炸式增长，而另一些公司的销售则出现了下降。它还表明，随着技术的成熟，连续的能力增强不连续增加了不确定性和丰富性，但不如在建立产品类别之前的那些不连续那么多。最后，发现技术的早期采用者比其他公司经历了更多的增长。使用三种不同的产品类型，从开始的年份范围很广，结果表明，技术确实是通过长期的增量变化来发展的，其间穿插着相对罕见的创新，这些创新从根本上提高了技术水平。虽然这些变化很少发生，但它们很明显，并显著改变了竞争环境。(同声传译)
Investigates the patterns of technological evolution and their impact on environmental conditions. Seven hypotheses are offered in order to demonstrate that technology is a central force in shaping the environments within which organizations operate. These hypotheses are: (1) technological change within a product class will be characterized by long periods of incremental change punctuated by discontinuities; (1a) technological discontinuities are either competence enhancing (build on existing skills and know-how) or competence destroying (require fundamentally new skills and competences); (2) the locus of innovation will differ for competence destroying and competence-enhancing technological changes. Competence-destroying discontinuities will be initiated by new entrants, while competence-enhancing discontinuities will be initiated by existing firms; (3) competitive uncertainty will be higher after a technological discontinuity than before discontinuity; (4) environmental munificence (i.e., resource availability and support for growth) will be higher after a technological discontinuity than before the discontinuity; (5) competence-enhancing discontinuities will be associated with decreased entry-to-exit ratios and decreased interfirm sales variability (thus strengthening product leaders and increasing barriers to entry). These patterns will be reversed for competence-destroying discontinuities; (6) successive competence-enhancing discontinuities will be associated with smaller increases in uncertainty and munificence; and (7) those organizations that initiate major technological innovations will have higher growth rates than other firms in the product class. Data were collected from U.S. firms in three product classes, domestic scheduled passenger airline transport, Portland cement manufacture, and minicomputer manufacture, from the year of the niche market's inception through 1980. Results indicate that after the three niche openings, there were six competence-enhancing technological discontinuities and two competence-destroying discontinuities in total. Each of these discontinuities had a far greater impact on a key measure of cost or performance than more incremental technological events. In addition, except for the period following the introduction of semiconductor memory in minicomputers, the ability of experienced industry observers to predict demand following technological disruptions was far worse than prior to the disruption. Demand growth following the discontinuity was significantly higher than it was immediately prior to the discontinuity, which had an enormous impact on product-class demand. Also, the ratio of entries to exits was higher in each of the five years before a competence-enhancing discontinuity than during the five subsequent years, though none of the differences is statistically significant. Though market variability in sales growth was expected, it was found that some firms' sales grew explosively while other firms experienced sales declines. It is also suggested that as technology matures, successive competence-enhancing discontinuities increase both uncertainty and munificence, but not as much as those discontinuities that preceded them in establishing the product class. Finally, early adopters of technology were found to experience more growth than other firms. Using three different product types, with a wide range of years from inception, it is shown that technology does evolve through long periods of incremental change punctuated by relatively rare innovations that radically improve the state of the art. Although these incidences of change are rare, they stand out clearly and have significantly altered competitive environments. (SFL)