The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios
The global-scale impacts of climate change on water resources and flooding under new climate and socio-economic scenarios
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-013-0948-4
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发表时间：
2014-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Lloyd-Hughes, Ben
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arnell, Nigel W.;Lloyd-Hughes, Ben
本文初步评估了气候变化速率（4个代表性浓度路径-RCP）、假定的未来人口（5个共享社会经济路径-SSP）和气候变化模式（19个CMIP 5气候模式）对区域和全球水资源压力和河流洪水的相对影响。预测的气候变化对水资源紧张和河流洪水的未来影响的不确定性主要是预测的气候变化的空间和季节格局的不确定性。2050年RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP6.0之间以及2080年RCP4.5和RCP6.0之间的影响几乎没有明显差异。在2050年和2080年，RCP8.5的影响大于其他RCPs。对于给定的RCP，在五个SSP之间，暴露于水资源压力增加或河流洪水频率增加的绝对人数存在差异。在“中间路线”的SSP 2下，到2050年，气候变化将使最高RCP下约9.2亿至34亿人面临水资源压力，并使1亿至5.8亿人面临河流洪水风险。在RCP2.6下，与RCP8.5下的影响相比，2050年水资源短缺增加的风险将减少22- 24%，洪水频率增加的风险将减少约16%。气候变化对未来实际损失和适应的影响不仅取决于受风险变化影响的人数，而且还取决于不同的SSP所描述的未来世界的质量特征。因此，小岛屿发展中国家之间“实际”影响的差异将大于受影响人数的差异。
This paper presents a preliminary assessment of the relative effects of rate of climate change (four Representative Concentration Pathways - RCPs), assumed future population (five Shared Socio-economic Pathways - SSPs), and pattern of climate change (19 CMIP5 climate models) on regional and global exposure to water resources stress and river flooding. Uncertainty in projected future impacts of climate change on exposure to water stress and river flooding is dominated by uncertainty in the projected spatial and seasonal pattern of change in climate. There is little clear difference in impact between RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2050, and between RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 in 2080. Impacts under RCP8.5 are greater than under the other RCPs in 2050 and 2080. For a given RCP, there is a difference in the absolute numbers of people exposed to increased water resources stress or increased river flood frequency between the five SSPs. With the 'middle-of-the-road' SSP2, climate change by 2050 would increase exposure to water resources stress for between approximately 920 and 3,400 million people under the highest RCP, and increase exposure to river flood risk for between 100 and 580 million people. Under RCP2.6, exposure to increased water scarcity would be reduced in 2050 by 22-24 %, compared to impacts under the RCP8.5, and exposure to increased flood frequency would be reduced by around 16 %. The implications of climate change for actual future losses and adaptation depend not only on the numbers of people exposed to changes in risk, but also on the qualitative characteristics of future worlds as described in the different SSPs. The difference in 'actual' impact between SSPs will therefore be greater than the differences in numbers of people exposed to impact.