Assessing the Influence of the Three Gorges Dam on Hydrological Drought Using GRACE Data
Assessing the Influence of the Three Gorges Dam on Hydrological Drought Using GRACE Data
复制标题
利用GRACE数据评估三峡大坝对水文干旱的影响
DOI：
10.3390/w10050669
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发表时间：
2018-05-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Song, Qingyi
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Li, Fupeng;Wang, Zhengtao;Song, Qingyi
随着世界经济和社会的发展，正在建造更多的水坝，以满足对水电日益增长的需求，这可能对水文干旱产生重大影响。提出了一个评价三峡大坝对长江流域水文干旱影响的指标--大坝影响指数（DII）。首先，陆地总水储量（TTWS）来自重力恢复和气候实验数据。然后，自然驱动的陆地水存储（NTWS）预测的土壤水分，降水和温度数据的基础上的人工神经网络模型。最后，使用TTWS和NTWS之间差异的经验（Kaplan-Meier）累积分布函数推导DII。2003 - 2008年长江干流3个次流域的DII分别为1.38、-4.66和-7.32，表明长江干流上游次流域的TTWS呈上升趋势，而中、下游次流域的TTWS呈下降趋势。结果表明，2003 - 2008年三峡工程蓄水对上游子流域的水文干旱有一定缓解作用，对中下游子流域的水文干旱有明显加剧作用，与Palmer干旱强度指数一致。该研究为评估大规模人类活动对水文干旱的影响提供了新的视角，为三峡工程运行期间的水资源管理提供了科学的决策依据。
With worldwide economic and social development, more dams are being constructed to meet the increasing demand for hydropower, which may considerably influence hydrological drought. Here, an index named the Dam Influence Index (DII) is proposed to assess the influence of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) on hydrological drought in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in China. First, the total terrestrial water storage (TTWS) is derived from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment data. Then, the natural-driven terrestrial water storage (NTWS) is predicted from the soil moisture, precipitation, and temperature data based on an artificial neural network model. Finally, the DII is derived using the empirical (Kaplan-Meier) cumulative distribution function of the differences between the TTWS and the NTWS. The DIIs of the three sub-basins in the YRB were 1.38, -4.66, and -7.32 between 2003 and 2008, which indicated an increase in TTWS in the upper sub-basin and a reduction in the middle and lower sub-basins. According to the results, we concluded that impoundments of the TGD between 2003 and 2008 slightly alleviated the hydrological drought in the upper sub-basin and significantly aggravated the hydrological drought in the middle and lower sub-basins, which is consistent with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. This study provides a new perspective for estimating the effects of large-scale human activities on hydrological drought and a scientific decision-making basis for the managing water resources over the operation of the TGD.