Recovery Migration After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial Concentration and Intensification in the Migration System.
Recovery Migration After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial Concentration and Intensification in the Migration System.
复制标题
卡特里娜飓风和丽塔飓风后的恢复迁移：迁移系统中的空间浓度和强化。
DOI：
10.1007/s13524-015-0400-7
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发表时间：
2015-08
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
DeWaard J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Curtis KJ;Fussell E;DeWaard J
受卡特里娜和丽塔飓风影响的墨西哥湾沿岸各县人类迁徙系统的变化提供了气候变化如何影响沿海人口的一个例子。粗略的气候变化模型预测“气候难民”将出现大规模迁移，但有关环境移民的新兴文献表明，大多数迁移将是现有迁移系统内的短距离和短期迁移，这会对受灾地区的人口恢复产生影响。在这项研究中，我们得出了一系列关于恢复性移民的假设，预测墨西哥湾受飓风影响的海岸线县的移民系统在灾前和恢复期之间可能发生的变化。我们使用国税局关于年度县级移民流量的数据来检验这些假设，并将恢复期移民系统（2007-2009）与灾前时期（1999-2004）进行比较。通过观察县与县之间的联系和流动，我们发现恢复性移民很强，因为受灾沿海县的移民系统在空间上变得更加集中，而其内部的流动加剧并变得更加城市化。我们的分析表明，气候变化情景中预期的更强烈和更频繁的风暴可能会如何影响移民系统，并对受灾地区的人口恢复产生影响。
Changes in the human migration systems of Hurricane Katrina- and Rita-affected Gulf of Mexico coastline counties provide an example of how climate change may affect coastal populations. Crude climate change models predict a mass migration of “climate refugees,” but an emerging literature on environmental migration suggests most migration will be short-distance and short-duration within existing migration systems, with implications for the population recovery of disaster-struck places. In this research, we derive a series of hypotheses on recovery migration predicting how the migration system of hurricane-affected coastline counties in the Gulf of Mexico was likely to have changed between the pre-disaster and the recovery periods. We test these hypotheses using data from the Internal Revenue Service on annual county-level migration flows, comparing the recovery period migration system (2007–2009) to the pre-disaster period (1999–2004). By observing county-to-county ties and flows we find that recovery migration was strong, as the migration system of the disaster-affected coastline counties became more spatially concentrated while flows within it intensified and became more urbanized. Our analysis demonstrates how migration systems are likely to be affected by the more intense and frequent storms anticipated by climate change scenarios with implications for the population recovery of disaster-affected places.