Macroeconomic Policy in Japan
Macroeconomic Policy in Japan
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日本的宏观经济政策
DOI：
10.1162/15353510260187454
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发表时间：
2002
影响因子：
9.7
通讯作者：
Warwick McKibbin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Warwick McKibbin
本文探讨了能够有效刺激日本经济的宏观经济政策组合的构成。实证计量经济学模型被用来预测货币刺激的后果，包括公开市场购买政府债券的日本银行结合宣布和实施通货膨胀目标在日本。本文还比较了永久性、临时性和分阶段财政调整的影响。该模型预测，货币政策通过日元贬值能够有效地刺激日本经济。同样，日本的大规模财政整顿在头两年只会产生轻微的收缩，但随后将为日本经济带来巨大的长期利益。在三年内分阶段实行可信的财政紧缩，同时设定通货膨胀目标，这可能会通过较弱的汇率和较低的长期真实的利率，对日本经济提供强有力的宏观经济刺激，并将使日本经济在十年内保持较高的增长。因此，宏观经济政策组合转向宽松的货币政策（例如，将通胀目标设定在2%至3%之间）和紧缩的财政政策可能是未来几年提高日本生产率增长的成功一揽子改革的重要组成部分。
This paper explores the composition of the macroeconomic policy packages that would be effective in stimulating the Japanese economy. An empirical econometric model is used to predict the consequences of a monetary stimulus consisting of an open-market purchase of government bonds by the Bank of Japan combined with the announcement and implementation of inflation targeting in Japan. The paper also compares the impacts of permanent, temporary, and phased fiscal adjustments. The model predicts that monetary policy would be effective in stimulating the Japanese economy through causing a depreciation of the yen. Similarly, a substantial fiscal consolidation in Japan would be only mildly contractionary for the first two years but then would yield substantial long-term benefits to the Japanese economy. Combining a credible fiscal contraction that is phased in over three years with an inflation target would be likely to provide a powerful macroeconomic stimulus to the Japanese economy, through a weaker exchange rate and lower long-term real interest rates, and would sustain higher growth in Japan for a decade. Thus, a switch in the macroeconomic policy mix toward a loose monetary policy (e.g., setting inflation targets between 2 and 3 percent) and a tight fiscal policy is likely to be an important part of a successful package of reforms to raise Japanese productivity growth over the coming years.