Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’
Tracking regional temperature projections from the early 1990s in light of variations in regional warming, including ‘warming holes’
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根据区域变暖的变化（包括“变暖洞”）跟踪 20 世纪 90 年代初的区域温度预测
作者：
M. Grose;J. Risbey;P. Whetton
对1990年代初关于到2030年气候变化的区域气候预测的准确性的看法，可能受到这些预测发表后25年来气温趋势变化的影响。然而，这一时期的温度趋势不仅受到温室气体等外部强迫的影响，而且还受到自然变化的影响。澳大利亚南部、萨赫勒、南亚和南欧的气温目前处于IPCC和CSIRO在1990年代初声明中的变暖估计范围内，假设1990年至2030年之间呈线性趋势。然而，澳大利亚北方和北美中部目前处于这些预测的下限或以下，在全球变暖期间具有多年区域冷却的特征，有时被称为“变暖洞”。最近的气候模型模拟表明，在最近的过去和不久的将来，包括澳大利亚和美国在内的一些地区可能会变冷，并且1990 -2030年的变冷可能性小于1990-2015年，使观测结果更接近IPCC和CSIRO对2030年变暖的估计。在某些区域，25年尺度的冷却可能与太平洋年代际振荡等周期性变率或南大洋等低趋势有关。在气候预测中明确传达区域变暖率的可变性，包括区域变暖“空洞”（或“激增”或“峰值”的反义词）的可能性，将有助于这些预测的用户设定更可靠的预期。
The perception of the accuracy of regional climate projections made in the early 1990s about climate change by 2030 may be influenced by how the temperature trend has changed in the 25 years since their publication. However, temperature trends over this period were influenced not only by external forcings such as greenhouse gases but also natural variations. The temperature of Southern Australia, the Sahel, South Asia and Southern Europe are currently within the warming estimates from statements in the early 1990s from the IPCC and CSIRO, assuming a linear trend between 1990 and 2030. However, northern Australia and central North America are currently at the lower limit or below these projections, having featured areas of multi-year regional cooling during global warming, sometimes called ‘warming holes’. Recent climate model simulations suggest that cooling can be expected in the recent past and near future in some regions, including in Australia and the US, and that cooling is less likely over 1990–2030 than in 1990–2015, bringing observations closer to the IPCC and CSIRO warming estimates by 2030. Cooling at the 25-year scale in some regions can be associated with cyclic variability such as the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation, or low trend such as in the Southern Ocean. Explicitly communicating the variability in regional warming rates in climate projections, including the possibility of regional warming ‘holes’ (or the opposite of ‘surges’ or ‘peaks’) would help to set more reliable expectations by users of those projections.
英国的气候情景与最近的观测结果相比如何？
影响因子：
3
作者：
Dessai S
通讯作者：
Dessai S
影响因子：
8.9
作者：
Cowtan, Kevin;Way, Robert G.
通讯作者：
Way, Robert G.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Lehner, Flavio;Schurer, Andrew P.;Froelicher, Thomas L.
通讯作者：
Froelicher, Thomas L.