Regulatory FOCUS Surface Water Models Fail to Predict Insecticide Concentrations in the Field
Regulatory FOCUS Surface Water Models Fail to Predict Insecticide Concentrations in the Field
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DOI：
10.1021/es301649w
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发表时间：
2012-08-07
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Schulz, Ralf
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Knaebel, Anja;Stehle, Sebastian;Schulz, Ralf
农药归趋模型及其USe（FOCUS）暴露模型的协调FOrum用于预测欧洲监管风险评估范围内农药地表水浓度的频率和幅度。这些预测是基于现实的最坏情况假设，从而得出预测的环境浓度。在这里，我们第一次比较了一个更大的数据集，122个测量的田间浓度（MFC）的农业杀虫剂提取的22个领域的研究，各自的佩奇通过使用FOCUS步骤1-4。虽然FOCUS第1步和第2佩奇的PEC通常高估了MFC，但地表水MFC超过了第3步标准PEC的23%和第4步标准PEC的31%，这对FOCUS暴露评估的保护性提出了质疑。使用现实的输入参数，第3步模拟低估了地表水和沉积物中的MFC分别为43%和78%，这表明更高程度的现实主义甚至降低了模型结果的保护性。拟除虫菊酯在地表水中PEC和MFC之间的比率显著低于有机磷或有机氯杀虫剂，这表明FOCUS预测对疏水性杀虫剂的保护性较低。总之，FOCUS建模方法对田间杀虫剂浓度没有保护作用。
The FOrum for the Co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their USe (FOCUS) exposure models are used to predict the frequency and magnitude of pesticide surface water concentrations within the European regulatory risk assessment. The predictions are based on realistic worst-case assumptions that result in predicted environmental concentrations (PEC). Here, we compared for the first time a larger data set of 122 measured field concentrations (MFC) of agricultural insecticides extracted from 22 field studies to respective PECs by using FOCUS steps 1-4. While FOCUS step 1 and 2 PECs generally overpredicted the MFCs, 23% of step 3 and 31% of step 4 standard PECs were exceeded by surface water MFCs, which questions the protectiveness of the FOCUS exposure assessment. Using realistic input parameters, step 3 simulations underpredicted MFCs in surface water and sediment by 43% and 78%, respectively, which indicate that a higher degree of realism even reduces the protectiveness of model results. The ratios between PEC and MFC in surface water were significantly lower for pyrethroids than for organophosphorus or organochlorine insecticides, which suggests that the FOCUS predictions are less protective for hydrophobic insecticides. In conclusion, the FOCUS modeling approach is not protective for insecticide concentrations in the field.