Rethinking restoration targets for American chestnut using species distribution modeling
Rethinking restoration targets for American chestnut using species distribution modeling
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DOI：
10.1007/s10531-019-01814-8
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发表时间：
2019-10-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Delborne, Jason A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Barnes, Jessica Cavin;Delborne, Jason A.
鉴于当代环境变化的规模和速度，人们越来越多地提出密集的保护干预措施，这将有助于受威胁物种的适应性特征的进化。这些项目的雄心受到一些关切的影响，包括受操纵的生物可能不适应其历史范围内的当代和未来气候条件。遵循国际自然保护联盟的指导方针，我们使用物种分布模型（SDM）考虑气候变化对美国板栗（Castanea dentata），一种功能性灭绝的森林物种，100多年来一直是各种恢复工作的重点的分布和数量的潜在影响。与北美树木的其他SDMS一致，我们的模型显示，到2080年，该物种的历史范围内的气候适宜的栖息地，美国板栗和气候适宜的栖息地在北部地区的扩大。这些广泛的变化对恢复实践有重大影响。特别是，他们强调了种质资源保护，当地适应和解决知识差距的重要性，种间相互作用的美国板栗。更一般地说，这个模型表明，辅助进化项目的目标，这往往是为了保持物种在其本地范围内，需要考虑到未来环境条件的不确定性和新奇。
Given the scale and speed of contemporary environmental changes, intensive conservation interventions are increasingly being proposed that would assist the evolution of adaptive traits in threatened species. The ambition of these projects is tempered by a number of concerns, including the potential maladaptation of manipulated organisms for contemporary and future climatic conditions in their historical ranges. Following the guidelines of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature, we use a species distribution model (SDM) to consider the potential impact of climate change on the distribution and quantity of suitable habitat for American chestnut (Castanea dentata), a functionally extinct forest species that has been the focus of various restoration efforts for over 100 years. Consistent with other SDMs for North American trees, our model shows contraction of climatically suitable habitat for American chestnut within the species' historical range and the expansion of climatically suitable habitat in regions to the north of it by 2080. These broad changes have significant implications for restoration practice. In particular, they highlight the importance of germplasm conservation, local adaptation, and addressing knowledge gaps about the interspecific interactions of American chestnut. More generally, this model demonstrates that the goals of assisted evolution projects, which often aim to maintain species in their native ranges, need to account for the uncertainty and novelty of future environmental conditions.