Managing natural disaster risks in a changing climate
Managing natural disaster risks in a changing climate
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DOI：
10.3763/ehaz.2009.0023
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发表时间：
2009-01-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Botzen, W. J. W.;Van den Bergh, J. C. J. M.
在过去几十年中，自然灾害的发生频率和严重程度都有所增加，造成了相当大的经济损失和生命损失。气候和社会经济变化的结合可能会增加未来的灾害损失趋势，从而产生对更复杂的灾害风险管理的需求。针对不确定、低概率、高影响风险的弹性风险管理战略包括一系列措施，侧重于灾害风险预防、减少损害和有效分担风险的安排。概述了气候变化对未来风险和风险管理政策可能产生的影响。有人认为，保险等财务安排可以在旨在限制和改善自然灾害的社会经济影响的适应战略中发挥重要作用。
Natural disasters have increased in frequency and severity during the last few decades, causing considerable economic damage and loss of life. A combination of climate and socio-economic change is likely to augment disaster loss trends in the future, creating the need for more sophisticated disaster risk management. A resilient risk management strategy for uncertain low-probability, high-impact risks comprises a package of measures focused on disaster risk prevention, damage mitigation and arrangements for efficient risk sharing. Possible implications of climate change on future risks and risk management policies are outlined. It is argued that financial arrangements such as insurance can play an important role in an adaptation strategy aimed at limiting and ameliorating socio-economic impacts of natural disasters.