Perioperative risk calculator for distal gastrectomy predicts overall survival in patients with gastric cancer.
Perioperative risk calculator for distal gastrectomy predicts overall survival in patients with gastric cancer.
复制标题
远端胃切除术的围手术期风险计算器可预测胃癌患者的总生存期。
DOI：
10.1007/s10120-018-0896-9
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发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Kitagawa Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Takeuchi M;Kawakubo H;Mayanagi S;Suzuki Y;Okabayashi K;Yamashita T;Kamiya S;Irino T;Fukuda K;Nakamura R;Suda K;Wada N;Takeuchi H;Kitagawa Y
背景虽然有一些预测胃癌远端胃切除术后长期生存的因素，但只有少数研究根据术前参数预测长期预后。我们的目的是评估围手术期风险计算器的可靠性，预测总生存率（OS）后，远端胃切除术在胃癌patients with gastric cancer.MethodsOverall，337例患者（225名男性，112名女性）谁经历了远端胃切除术胃癌在庆应义塾大学医院，东京，日本，2009年1月至2013年12月之间被纳入本研究。我们调查了一个风险计算器的可靠性预测OS.ResultsIn多变量分析，手术死亡率和30天死亡率的风险模型被确定为死亡的预测因子。时间依赖性受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线分析表明，手术死亡率风险模型的估计曲线下面积（AUC）值在术后前3年内> 0.870。我们使用Cutoff在线工具设置OS风险模型手术死亡率的最佳截止值。临界值4.117%是死亡的重要危险因素。在外部验证set.ConclusionsWe阐明了风险计算器值和胃癌患者的OS率之间的关联。时间依赖性ROC曲线分析表明，手术死亡率风险模型的AUC值较高，表明该风险计算器不仅对短期结局有用，而且对长期结局也有用。
BackgroundAlthough some predictive factors of long-term survival after a distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer have been reported, only few studies have predicted long-term outcomes based on preoperative parameters. We aimed to evaluate the reliability of perioperative risk calculator for predicting overall survival (OS) after distal gastrectomy in patients with gastric cancer.MethodsOverall, 337 patients (225 males, 112 females) who had undergone a distal gastrectomy for gastric cancer at the Keio University Hospital, Tokyo, Japan, between January 2009 and December 2013 were enrolled in this study. We investigated the reliability of a risk calculator for the prediction of OS.ResultsIn multivariate analysis, the risk models for operative mortality and 30-day mortality were identified as predictors of death. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis indicated that the estimated area under the curve (AUC) value of the risk model for operative mortality was > 0.870 during the first postoperative 3 years. We set optimal cutoff values of the risk model operative mortality for OS using the Cutoff Finder online tool. The cutoff values of 4.117% were significant risk factors of death. Similar results were observed in the external validation set.ConclusionsWe elucidated the associations among risk calculator values and OS rates of patients with gastric cancer. Time-dependent ROC curve analysis suggested that the AUC value of the risk model for operative mortality was high, indicating that this risk calculator would be useful for not only short-term outcomes, but also long-term outcomes.