Dominant Forms of Conflict in Changing Political Systems
Dominant Forms of Conflict in Changing Political Systems
复制标题
不断变化的政治体系中的主要冲突形式
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Clionadh Raleigh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
H. Choi;Clionadh Raleigh
我们的文章分析了过渡政治机构如何为反对派团体煽动不同形式的政治暴力创造激励和抑制因素。我们认为，在两个具体的参数的变化，治理制衡和政治参与，迫使国家走向三种形式的冲突，包括内战，政治民兵和骚乱。利用1997年至2012年非洲不同类型政治暴力的分类数据，我们分析了计数和变化模型中的治理参数。我们还确定了高风险冲突时期。典型的政权类型（民主、专制、无政府）无法解释冲突的表现，因为暴力发生在政治开放和竞争程度不同的政权中。反对派团体积极应对政权过渡，因为体制参数的变化与国家内部转向其他暴力形式有关。
Our article analyzes how transitioning political institutions create incentives and disincentives for opposition groups to incite different forms of political violence. We argue that variation on two specific parameters of governance—checks and balances and political participation—compels states toward one of the three forms of conflict, including civil wars, political militia, and riots. Using disaggregated data on different types of political violence across Africa from 1997 to 2012, we analyzed two parameters of governance in both count and change models. We also identified high-risk conflict periods. Typical regime types (democracy, autocracy, anocracy) cannot explain manifestations of conflict, as violence occurs in regimes with varying levels of political openness and competition. Opposition groups actively respond to regime transitions, as changes in institutional parameters correlate with shifts into alternative forms of violence within states.