Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories.
Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2016.2533
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发表时间：
2017-01-25
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Perry CT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Januchowski-Hartley FA;Graham NA;Wilson SK;Jennings S;Perry CT
气候变化是长期维持以珊瑚为主的热带生态系统的最大威胁之一，在过去二十年中受到了相当大的关注。珊瑚白化和相关的死亡事件，预计将变得更加频繁和激烈，可以改变负责珊瑚礁生长和维护的不同元素的平衡。珊瑚大量死亡对地貌的影响受到的关注相对较少，特别是有关珊瑚礁碳酸盐生产的时间恢复和促进珊瑚礁生长潜力恢复的因素的问题。在这里，我们跟踪了1994年至2014年塞舌尔内部珊瑚礁的生物碳酸盐预算，跨越了1998年全球漂白事件，当时这些珊瑚礁失去了90%以上的珊瑚覆盖。1994年，所有21个珊瑚礁的预算都是正数，但2005年的预算主要是负数。到2014年，7个珊瑚礁的碳酸盐预算与1994年相当，但在生态制度向大型藻类主导转变的所有珊瑚礁上，到2014年，预算仍然是负数。1994年，具有较高的大规模珊瑚覆盖率、较低的大型藻类覆盖率和较低的挖掘鹦嘴鱼生物量的珊瑚礁在漂白后更有可能有正的预算。如果2016年白化事件造成的珊瑚死亡率与1998年一样严重，我们基于过去趋势的预测表明，2014年有正预算的8个珊瑚礁中有6个到2030年仍将有正预算。我们的研究结果强调，珊瑚礁的增生和框架的维护不能单独从生态状态来假设，管理人员应该把重点放在保护珊瑚礁的方面，支持弹性碳酸盐预算。
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the long-term maintenance of coral-dominated tropical ecosystems, and has received considerable attention over the past two decades. Coral bleaching and associated mortality events, which are predicted to become more frequent and intense, can alter the balance of different elements that are responsible for coral reef growth and maintenance. The geomorphic impacts of coral mass mortality have received relatively little attention, particularly questions concerning temporal recovery of reef carbonate production and the factors that promote resilience of reef growth potential. Here, we track the biological carbonate budgets of inner Seychelles reefs from 1994 to 2014, spanning the 1998 global bleaching event when these reefs lost more than 90% of coral cover. All 21 reefs had positive budgets in 1994, but in 2005 budgets were predominantly negative. By 2014, carbonate budgets on seven reefs were comparable with 1994, but on all reefs where an ecological regime shift to macroalgal dominance occurred, budgets remained negative through 2014. Reefs with higher massive coral cover, lower macroalgae cover and lower excavating parrotfish biomass in 1994 were more likely to have positive budgets post-bleaching. If mortality of corals from the 2016 bleaching event is as severe as that of 1998, our predictions based on past trends would suggest that six of eight reefs with positive budgets in 2014 would still have positive budgets by 2030. Our results highlight that reef accretion and framework maintenance cannot be assumed from the ecological state alone, and that managers should focus on conserving aspects of coral reefs that support resilient carbonate budgets.