MEASURING CONSUMER UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FUTURE INFLATION
MEASURING CONSUMER UNCERTAINTY ABOUT FUTURE INFLATION
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DOI：
10.1002/jae.1239
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发表时间：
2011-04-01
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
van der Klaauw, Wilbert
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
De Bruin, Waendi Bruine;Manski, Charles F.;van der Klaauw, Wilbert
我们引入了一种基于调查的对未来通胀不确定性的衡量标准，要求消费者对通胀结果进行密度预测。消费者愿意也能够表达不确定性，表现出与不确定性的定性测量可靠相关的高响应率和响应模式。表达的不确定性的异质性与人口统计特征和金融知识有关，从密度预测得出的中心趋势的衡量标准与点预测密切相关。此外，所表达的不确定性与点数预测水平以及随着时间推移对点数预测的较大修正呈正相关。版权所有(C)2011 John Wiley&Sons，Ltd.
We introduce a survey-based measure of uncertainty about future inflation, asking consumers for density forecasts across inflation outcomes. Consumers are willing and able to express uncertainty, showing high response rates and response patterns that are reliably related to qualitative measures of uncertainty. Heterogeneity in expressed uncertainty is associated with demographic characteristics and financial literacy, and measures of central tendency derived from density forecasts are strongly correlated with point forecasts. Furthermore, expressed uncertainty is positively related to point forecast levels and to larger revisions in point forecasts over time. Copyright (C) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.