System dynamics modeling for public health: Background and opportunities
System dynamics modeling for public health: Background and opportunities
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2005.062059
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发表时间：
2006-03-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Hirsch, GB
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Homer, JB;Hirsch, GB
系统动力学的系统建模方法非常适合于解决许多公共卫生问题的动态复杂性。系统动力学方法包括开发计算机模拟模型，描绘积累和反馈的过程，并可进行系统测试，以找到克服政策阻力的有效政策。慢性病预防的系统动力学模型应力求纳入现代生态学方法的所有基本要素，包括疾病后果、健康和风险行为、环境因素、以及与健康有关的资源和提供系统。系统动力学显示出作为建模多种相互作用的疾病和风险、输送系统和患病人群的相互作用以及国家和州政策问题的一种手段的希望。
The systems modeling methodology of system dynamics is well suited to address the dynamic complexity that characterizes many public health issues. The system dynamics approach involves the development of computer simulation models that portray processes of accumulation and feedback and that may be tested systematically to find effective policies for overcoming policy resistance.System dynamics modeling of chronic disease prevention should seek to incorporate all the basic elements of a modern ecological approach, including disease outcomes, health and risk behaviors, environmental factors, and health-related resources and delivery systems. System dynamics shows promise as a means of modeling multiple interacting diseases and risks, the interaction of delivery systems and diseased populations, and matters of national and state policy.