Meridional Modes and Increasing Pacific Decadal Variability Under Anthropogenic Forcing
Meridional Modes and Increasing Pacific Decadal Variability Under Anthropogenic Forcing
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DOI：
10.1002/2017gl076548
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发表时间：
2018-01
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
G. Liguori;E. Di Lorenzo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Liguori;E. Di Lorenzo
太平洋年代际变率对天气、大气极端事件、干旱、飓风、海洋热浪和海洋生态系统的统计有很大影响。海表温度（SST）观测表明，厄尔尼诺样年代际变率的方差增加了约30%（1920-2015），主要太平洋气候模式之间的耦合更强。虽然我们不能把这些趋势归因于全球气候变化，对30个采用RCP8.5辐射强迫情景（1920-2100年）的共同体地球系统模式大型天体（透镜）成员的检验表明，到2020年，太平洋年代际变化的显著人为趋势将出现，以响应更活跃的北太平洋经向模态（PMM）--一种众所周知的厄尔尼诺前兆。PMM是激发和耦合热带和热带外年代际变率的关键机制。在透镜中，PMM方差的增加与平均气候变暖导致的风-蒸发-SST热力学反馈的增强一致。
Pacific decadal variability has strong impacts on the statistics of weather, atmosphere extremes, droughts, hurricanes, marine heatwaves, and marine ecosystems. Sea surface temperature (SST) observations show that the variance of the El Niño‐like decadal variability has increased by ~30% (1920–2015) with a stronger coupling between the major Pacific climate modes. Although we cannot attribute these trends to global climate change, the examination of 30 members of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LENS) forced with the RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenario (1920–2100) suggests that significant anthropogenic trends in Pacific decadal variance will emerge by 2020 in response to a more energetic North Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM)—a well‐known El Niño precursor. The PMM is a key mechanism for energizing and coupling tropical and extratropical decadal variability. In the LENS, the increase in PMM variance is consistent with an intensification of the winds‐evaporation‐SST thermodynamic feedback that results from a warmer mean climate.