The Epidemiology of Rift Valley Fever in Mayotte: Insights and Perspectives from 11 Years of Data
The Epidemiology of Rift Valley Fever in Mayotte: Insights and Perspectives from 11 Years of Data
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0004783
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发表时间：
2016-06-01
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Cardinale, Eric
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Metras, Raphaelle;Cavalerie, Lisa;Cardinale, Eric
裂谷热是一种人畜共患的虫媒病毒病，主要在撒哈拉以南非洲地区威胁人类健康、动物健康和生产。由于缺乏数据，裂谷热病毒的动态研究很少。裂谷热至少自2004年以来就一直存在于印度洋的马约特岛，远离非洲东南部海岸。11年来（2004- 2015年），在牲畜中进行了几次回顾性和前瞻性血清学调查。这些数据在这里整理和展示。血清阳性率的时间模式与时间以及年龄分层的血清阳性率作图。结果表明，裂谷热在2004- 2007年已经存在。2008年至2010年发生了一次流行病，2008-09年IgG和IgM的年患病率峰值分别为36%（N = 142，n = 51，95% CI [17-55]）和41%（N = 96，n = 39，95% CI [25-56]）。自2011年以来，该病毒似乎一直在低水平传播，几乎没有造成新的感染。2015年，约95%的牲畜种群易感（IgG年患病率为6%（N = 584，n = 29，95% CI [3-10]））。月降雨量变化很大（2- 540毫米），而平均气温保持较高，变化不大（约25-30摄氏度）。这一大型数据集在一个岛屿领土上收集了10多年，表明过去的流行病和目前的流行病间隔期，是研究裂谷热动态的一个独特机会。进一步的数据收集和建模工作可用于测试动物进口和降雨模式的不同情景，这些情景可解释观察到的流行病学模式，并估计可能重新出现的可能性。
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arboviral disease that is a threat to human health, animal health and production, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa. RVF virus dynamics have been poorly studied due to data scarcity. On the island of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean, off the Southeastern African coast, RVF has been present since at least 2004. Several retrospective and prospective serological surveys in livestock have been conducted over eleven years (2004-15). These data are collated and presented here. Temporal patterns of seroprevalence were plotted against time, as well as age-stratified seroprevalence. Results suggest that RVF was already present in 2004-07. An epidemic occurred between 2008 and 2010, with IgG and IgM peak annual prevalences of 36% in 2008-09 (N = 142, n = 51, 95% CI [17-55]) and 41% (N = 96, n = 39, 95% CI [25-56]), respectively. The virus seems to be circulating at a low level since 2011, causing few new infections. In 2015, about 95% of the livestock population was susceptible (IgG annual prevalence was 6% (N = 584, n = 29, 95% CI [3-10])). Monthly rainfall varied a lot (2-540mm), whilst average temperature remained high with little variation (about 25-30 degrees C). This large dataset collected on an insular territory for more than 10 years, suggesting a past epidemic and a current inter-epidemic period, represents a unique opportunity to study RVF dynamics. Further data collection and modelling work may be used to test different scenarios of animal imports and rainfall pattern that could explain the observed epidemiological pattern and estimate the likelihood of a potential re-emergence.