The Global Incidence of Peptic Ulcer Disease Is Decreasing Since the Turn of the 21st Century: A Study of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)
The Global Incidence of Peptic Ulcer Disease Is Decreasing Since the Turn of the 21st Century: A Study of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)
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DOI：
10.14309/ajg.0000000000001843
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发表时间：
2022-09-01
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Kaplan, Gilaad G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Azhari, Hassan;King, James A.;Kaplan, Gilaad G.
引言：消化性溃疡病（PUD）是全球住院的常见原因。我们评估了世纪以来36个经济合作与发展组织（OECD）国家因PUD住院的时间趋势。OECD数据库包含2000年至2019年36个国家与PUD相关的出院和死亡率数据。PUD的住院率以每10万人的年住院率表示。使用联合点回归模型计算每个国家的平均年百分比变化（AAPC）和95%置信区间（CI），并使用荟萃分析进行汇总。采用自回归积分移动平均和泊松回归模型对2021年PUD发病率进行预测。结果：总体中位住院率为42.4，四分位数范围为29.7-60.6/100，000人-年。从2000年到2019年，全球PUD的平均住院率（AAPC = -3.9%; 95%CI：-4.4，-3.3）和死亡率（AAPC = -4.7%; 95%CI：-5.6，-3.8）有所下降。2021年PUD住院的预测发生率从墨西哥的每100，000人3. 5人到立陶宛的每100，000人92. 1人不等。在经合组织的36个国家中，估计2021年将有329，000人因PUD住院。讨论：PUD仍然是全球住院的重要原因。令人欣慰的是，在北美、拉丁美洲、欧洲、亚洲和大洋洲的经合组织国家，PUD的住院率和死亡率一直在下降。确定推动这些趋势的根本因素对于维持这种下降势头至关重要。
INTRODUCTION: Peptic ulcer disease (PUD) is a common cause of hospitalization worldwide. We assessed temporal trends in hospitalization for PUD in 36 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries since the turn of the 21st century. METHODS: The OECD database contains data on PUD-related hospital discharges and mortality for 36 countries between 2000 and 2019. Hospitalization rates for PUD were expressed as annual rates per 100,000 persons. Joinpoint regression models were used to calculate the average annual percent change (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for each country, which were pooled using meta-analyses. The incidence of PUD was forecasted to 2021 using autoregressive integrated moving average and Poisson regression models. RESULTS: The overall median hospitalization rate was 42.4 with an interquartile range of 29.7-60.6 per 100,000 person-years. On average, hospitalization rates (AAPC = -3.9%; 95% CI: -4.4, -3.3) and morality rates (AAPC = -4.7%; 95% CI: -5.6, -3.8) for PUD have decreased from 2000 to 2019 globally. The forecasted incidence of PUD hospitalizations in 2021 ranged from 3.5 per 100,000 in Mexico to 92.1 per 100,000 in Lithuania. Across 36 countries in the OECD, 329,000 people are estimated to be hospitalized for PUD in 2021. DISCUSSION: PUD remains an important cause of hospitalization worldwide. Reassuringly, hospitalizations and mortality for PUD have consistently been falling in OECD countries in North America, Latin America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania. Identifying underlying factors driving these trends is essential to sustaining this downward momentum.