Phytophthora ramorum in England and Wales: which environmental variables predict county disease incidence?
Phytophthora ramorum in England and Wales: which environmental variables predict county disease incidence?
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1439-0329.2011.00735.x
复制
发表时间：
2012-04
期刊：
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
V. Chadfield;M. Pautasso
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
V. Chadfield;M. Pautasso
摘要疫霉（Phytophthora ramorum）是导致美国西海岸橡树猝死和不列颠群岛落叶松猝死的卵菌病原体。它还会导致一系列的观赏寄主（如杜鹃花、绣花菜、Pieris和山茶花）的树枝枯萎和叶枯萎，这些寄主通常生长在植物苗圃中，由园艺中心交易，在公共和私人花园种植。植物贸易在ramorum扩散中的作用已经有了很好的文献记载，但需要对哪些环境变量可以预测贸易和野外的疾病表达进行区域分析，以便能够更好地预测这一全球植物健康问题的进一步发展。在本研究中，我们分析了英格兰和威尔士各县（2002-2009年，即在日本落叶松人工林报告之前）的ramorum发病率数据，将其作为温度和降雨等环境变量的函数，控制了县面积、人口和空间自相关等混杂因素。苗圃和零售中心的县发病率与县面积和人口密度呈正相关，花园和野外的县发病率没有这种相关性，向东显著下降，与贸易中的疾病发病率呈正相关。后一项发现，虽然没有决定性地证明因果关系，但表明贸易在这种病原体在英格兰和威尔士地区的传播中发挥了作用。综上所述，随着降水的增加和纬度的下降，在商业环境和半自然环境中的黑桫椤县发病率呈上升趋势。这项研究显示了环境变量在形成区域植物流行病方面的重要性，但也得出了一些结果，表明人类在整个国家传播植物疾病方面发挥了作用。
Summary Phytophthora ramorum is the oomycete pathogen responsible for Sudden Oak Death on the West Coast of the USA and Sudden Larch Death in the British Isles. It also causes twig dieback and leaf blight on a series of ornamental hosts (e.g. Rhododendron, Viburnum, Pieris and Camellia) commonly grown in plant nurseries, traded by garden centres and cultivated in public and private gardens. The role of the plant trade in the dispersal of P. ramorum has been well documented, but there is a need for regional analyses of which environmental variables can predict disease expression in the trade and in the wild, so as to be able to better predict the further development of this worldwide plant health issue. In this study, we analyse data on the incidence of P. ramorum (2002–2009, thus before the reports in Japanese larch plantations) in counties in England and Wales as a function of environmental variables such as temperature and rainfall, controlling for confounding factors such as county area, human population and spatial autocorrelation. While P. ramorum county incidence in nurseries and retail centres was positively related to county area and human population density, county incidence in gardens and the wild did not show such correlations, declined significantly towards the East and was positively correlated with disease incidence in the trade. The latter finding, although not conclusively proving causation, suggests a role of the trade in the dispersal of this pathogen across English and Welsh landscapes. Combined together, P. ramorum county incidence in the trade and in the semi-natural environment increased with increasing precipitation and with declining latitude. This study shows the importance of environmental variables in shaping regional plant epidemics, but also yields results that are suggestive of a role of people in spreading plant diseases across entire countries.