When are Analyst Recommendation Changes Influential?
When are Analyst Recommendation Changes Influential?
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发表时间：
2010
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通讯作者：
Roger Loh;René M. Stulz
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作者：
Roger Loh;René M. Stulz
现有文献使用平均股价反应来衡量分析师推荐变化的贡献。使用这种方法，即使没有任何推荐对股价产生明显影响，推荐更改也可能产生重大影响。相反，只有当其对受影响公司的股价产生明显影响时，我们才称其为有影响力的推荐变更。我们发现，只有12%的推荐更改具有影响力。如果推荐变更来自Leader、STAR等以前有影响力的分析师，他们发布的不符合共识，并伴随着收益预测，发布的是成长型、小型、高机构持股或预测分散度较高的公司。
The existing literature measures the contribution of analyst recommendation changes using average stock-price reactions. With such an approach, recommendation changes can have a significant impact even if no recommendation has a visible stock-price impact. Instead, we call a recommendation change influential only if it affects the stock price of the affected firm visibly. We show that only 12% of recommendation changes are influential. Recommendation changes are more likely to be influential if they are from leader, star, previously influential analysts, issued away from consensus, accompanied by earnings forecasts, issued on growth, small, high institutional ownership, or high forecast dispersion firms.