A Dynamic Dual Process Model of Intertemporal Choice
A Dynamic Dual Process Model of Intertemporal Choice
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DOI：
10.1017/sjp.2019.53
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发表时间：
2019-01-01
影响因子：
2.3
通讯作者：
Zhao, Wenjia Joyce
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Diederich, Adele;Zhao, Wenjia Joyce
决策的双过程理论将选择描述为自动系统1和商议系统2的结果，自动系统1启动迅速但行为冲动，商议系统2启动较慢但以理性和受控的方式做出决定。然而，现有的双过程理论大多是口头描述，不能产生可检验的定性和定量预测。在这篇文章中，我们描述了一个形式化的动态双过程跨期选择模型框架，它允许关于选择概率和响应时间分布的精确的、实验可检验的预测。该框架基于两阶段随机过程模型，以解释这两个假设的系统，并捕捉决策过程中涉及的动态和不确定性。使用准封闭形式的解，我们说明了反映在模型参数中的不同因素(系统1的时间、时间约束和两个系统中的偏好)如何影响定性和定量模型预测。此外，我们展示了如何在框架中实现现有的关于跨期选择的静态确定性模型，从而允许可测试的预测。建议的框架可以为跨期选择背后的过程带来新的见解。
Dual process theories of decision making describe choice as the result of an automatic System 1, which is quick to activate but behaves impulsively, and a deliberative System 2, which is slower to activate but makes decisions in a rational and controlled manner. However, most existent dual process theories are verbal descriptions and do not generate testable qualitative and quantitative predictions. In this paper, we describe a formalized dynamic dual process model framework of intertemporal choice that allows for precise, experimentally testable predictions regarding choice probability and response time distributions. The framework is based on two-stage stochastic process models to account for the two postulated systems and to capture the dynamics and uncertainty involved in decision making. Using quasi closed form solutions, we illustrate how different factors (timing of System 1, time constraint, and preferences in both systems), which are reflected in the model parameters, influence qualitative and quantitative model predictions. Furthermore, we show how an existing static-deterministic model on intertemporal choice can be implemented in the framework allowing for testable predictions. The proposed framework can bring novel insights into the processes underlying intertemporal choices.