Factors influencing the probability of an incident at a junction: results from an interactive driving simulator
Factors influencing the probability of an incident at a junction: results from an interactive driving simulator
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DOI：
10.1016/s0001-4575(01)00078-1
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发表时间：
2002-11-01
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Black, I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Alexander, J;Barham, P;Black, I
使用固定基础交互式驾驶模拟器产生的数据，该模拟器用于评估驾驶员决策辅助，建立了一个模型，以预测由于在无信号控制的交叉口右转过左交通而发生事故(即事故或险些发生)的概率。这可以被认为是两个独立概率的乘积，第一个概率是交通流中一对车辆之间的间隙被接受的概率，第二个概率是横穿交通流所需的时间导致与该交通流中最近的车辆相撞的时间小于一秒的概率。该模型是根据涉及司机样本的实验试验结果开发的，其中大多数司机的年龄在60岁或以上，以展示各种参数对这些概率的影响。考虑的参数包括相继车辆之间的差距大小、车辆特征(如大小、颜色和速度)、驾驶员特征(如年龄和性别)以及日间和夜间条件。(C)2002爱思唯尔科学有限公司。保留所有权利。
Using data generated from a fixed-base interactive driving simulator, which was used to evaluate a driver decision aid, a model is built to predict the probability of an incident (i.e. an accident or a 'near miss') occurring as a result of a right-turn across left-hand traffic at an unsignalised junction. This can be considered to be the product of two separate probabilities, the first being the probability that the gap between a pair of vehicles in the traffic stream is accepted, and the second the probability that the time needed to cross the on-coining stream of traffic causes the time-to-collision with the nearest vehicle in this traffic stream to be less than a second. The model is developed from the results of experimental trials involving a sample of drivers, the majority of whom were aged 60 years or older, in order to demonstrate the effect of various parameters on these probabilities. The parameters considered include the size of the gap between successive vehicles, vehicle characteristics such as size, colour and velocity, driver characteristics such as age and sex, and both daytime and night-time conditions. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.