Next generation forecasting tools for the optimal management of wind generation
Next generation forecasting tools for the optimal management of wind generation
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用于风力发电优化管理的下一代预测工具
DOI：
10.1109/pmaps.2006.360238
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Virlot
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Kariniotakis;I. Waldl;I. Martí;G. Giebel;T. S. Nielsen;J. Tambke;J. Usaola;F. Dierich;A. Bocquet;S. Virlot
本文介绍了Anemos项目在短期风电功率预测方面的目标和所取得的成果。该项目的目的是开发准确的模型，大大超过目前最先进的方法，利用统计和物理建模方法进行陆上和海上风电预测。该项目的重点是提前48小时的预测水平，并调查提前7天的更高水平的风的可预测性，这对维护计划是有用的。重点放在高分辨率气象预报的集成上。还开发了用于在线不确定性和预测风险估计的具体模块。开发了一个集成的软件平台‘Anemos’来托管各种型号。该系统由多个最终用户安装，用于在陆上和海上风电场进行在线操作，以便在地方、区域和国家范围内进行预测。这些应用包括不同的地形类型和风气候、陆上和近海情况，以及互联或岛状电网
This paper presents the objectives and an overview of the results obtained in the frame of the ANEMOS project on short-term wind power forecasting. The aim of the project is to develop accurate models that substantially outperform current state-of-the-art methods, for onshore and offshore wind power forecasting, exploiting both statistical and physical modeling approaches. The project focus on prediction horizons up to 48 hours ahead and investigates predictability of wind for higher horizons up to 7 days ahead useful i.e. for maintenance scheduling. Emphasis is given on the integration of high-resolution meteorological forecasts. Specific modules are also developed for on-line uncertainty and prediction risk estimation. An integrated software platform, 'ANEMOS', is developed to host the various models. This system is installed by several end-users for on-line operation at onshore and offshore wind farms for prediction at a local, regional and national scale. The applications include different terrain types and wind climates, on- and offshore cases, and interconnected or island grids