Urbanization Is No Longer Driven by Migration in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (1985-2015)
Urbanization Is No Longer Driven by Migration in Low- and Middle-Income Countries (1985-2015)
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/padr.12407
复制
发表时间：
2021-07-01
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
Bocquier, Philippe
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Menashe-Oren, Ashira;Bocquier, Philippe
在世界各地，人口已经过渡到居住在城市空间，在低收入和中等收入国家，居住在城市的人口比例预计将继续增加。要预测这一基本进程，就需要更好地了解推动城市转型的人口因素。通过使用联合国1985-2015年按年龄和性别分列的城市和农村人口数据，间接估计129个国家的移民和行政重新分类对城市转型的共同贡献，我们发现，农村和城市部门之间的自然增长差异解释了30年期间的大部分城市化。在城市转型过程中，移徙和重新分类的作用下降，变得微不足道。尽管数据有限，但我们确认，将移民视为推动中低收入国家城市化的因素是误导性的。
Across the world, populations have transitioned to inhabiting urban spaces, and in low- and middle-income countries the proportion of people living in cities is expected to continue to increase. Anticipation of this fundamental process calls for a better understanding of the demographic factors that drive the urban transition. By indirectly estimating the joint contribution of migration and administrative reclassification to urban transition in 129 countries using urban and rural population by age and sex data available from the United Nations over 1985-2015, we find that differences in natural increase between the rural and urban sectors explain most of the urbanization over the 30-year period examined. Over the urban transition, the role of migration and reclassification declines and becomes negligible. Despite data limitations, we confirm that it is misleading to view migration as fueling urbanization in low- and middle-income countries.