Future wave climate over the west-European shelf seas
Future wave climate over the west-European shelf seas
复制标题
西欧陆架海未来的波浪气候
DOI：
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
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通讯作者：
D. Reeve
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Zacharioudaki;S. Pan;D. Simmonds;V. Magar;D. Reeve
在本文中，我们研究了全球变暖情景下西欧陆架海波浪气候的变化。特别是，对应于现在(控制)时间片1961-2000和未来(情景)时间片2061-2100的气候变化风场被用来驱动波浪发生模式，以产生等价的控制和情景波浪气候。将情景波浪气候的年度和季节统计分别与相应的控制波浪气候进行比较，以确定当前和未来极端和盛行波高之间的统计意义的相对变化。使用一组嵌套计算区域上的全球、区域和关联的全球-区域风强迫，进一步证明了结果对强迫的分辨率和覆盖率的敏感性。这表明，使用典型分辨率和覆盖率的全球和区域气候模式的联合强迫是研究本研究感兴趣区域相对波浪变化的一个很好的选择。在大西洋高度暴露的地区，仅靠全球强迫的粗略分辨率就会导致非常相似的结果。相比之下，由于覆盖范围有限，仅有精细分辨率的区域强迫被证明不足以探索西欧水域的波浪气候变化。用全球-区域联合风强迫得到的结果表明，不同情景之间有一定的一致性。总体来说，未来平均和极值波高只在冬季增加，仅在英国西南部和法国西部，北纬44-45°以北，反之，预计波高将减少，尤其是夏季。然而，这一下降主要是由本地风浪造成的，而涌浪则有所增加。只有在春季，海浪的平均高度才会上升，局地的风浪才会下降。
In this paper, we investigate changes in the wave climate of the west-European shelf seas under global warming scenarios. In particular, climate change wind fields corresponding to the present (control) time-slice 1961–2000 and the future (scenario) time-slice 2061–2100 are used to drive a wave generation model to produce equivalent control and scenario wave climate. Yearly and seasonal statistics of the scenario wave climates are compared individually to the corresponding control wave climate to identify relative changes of statistical significance between present and future extreme and prevailing wave heights. Using global, regional and linked global–regional wind forcing over a set of nested computational domains, this paper further demonstrates the sensitivity of the results to the resolution and coverage of the forcing. It suggests that the use of combined forcing from linked global and regional climate models of typical resolution and coverage is a good option for the investigation of relative wave changes in the region of interest of this study. Coarse resolution global forcing alone leads to very similar results over regions that are highly exposed to the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, fine resolution regional forcing alone is shown to be insufficient for exploring wave climate changes over the western European waters because of its limited coverage. Results obtained with the combined global–regional wind forcing showed some consistency between scenarios. In general, it was shown that mean and extreme wave heights will increase in the future only in winter and only in the southwest of UK and west of France, north of about 44–45° N. Otherwise, wave heights are projected to decrease, especially in summer. Nevertheless, this decrease is dominated by local wind waves whilst swell is found to increase. Only in spring do both swell and local wind waves decrease in average height.