The Law of Accelerating Returns
The Law of Accelerating Returns
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DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
R. Kurzweil
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Kurzweil
对技术史的分析表明，技术变革是指数性的，与常识的“直觉线性”观点相反。因此，我们在21世纪不会经历100年的进步--它更像是2万年的进步(以今天的速度)。芯片速度和成本效益等“回报”也呈指数级增长。甚至指数增长的速度也有指数增长。在几十年内，机器智能将超过人类智能，导致奇点--技术变革如此迅速和深刻，以至于代表着人类历史结构的断裂。其影响包括生物和非生物智能的融合，基于不朽软件的人类，以及以光速在宇宙中向外扩展的超高水平的智能。
An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense “intuitive linear” view. So we won’t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century — it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today’s rate). The “returns,” such as chip speed and cost-effectiveness, also increase exponentially. There’s even exponential growth in the rate of exponential growth. Within a few decades, machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, leading to The Singularity — technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history. The implications include the merger of biological and nonbiological intelligence, immortal software-based humans, and ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light.