Theoretical Foundations II
Theoretical Foundations II
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理论基础 II
DOI：
10.2469/cp.v2002.n7.4016
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. AsnessClifford
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. AsnessClifford
从历史上看，高市盈率导致低收益，低市盈率导致高收益。因此，在当前市场市盈率处于历史高位的情况下，有真实的拯救需求。本文探讨了三种可能的方法来挽救市场的下跌：持续的高真实的收益增长（这是极不可能的），低利率（这只在短期内有帮助），或投资者接受较低的未来回报率。最后一种可能性可以归结为在长期低回报和极低（崩溃型）回报之间做出选择，然后是历史上更正常的回报。研究发现，投资者应该接受6- 7%的名义股票回报率，但有证据表明，投资者实际上并不认为他们面临着如此低的回报率。
Historically, high P/Es have led to low returns and low P/Es have led to high returns. So, with today's market at historically high P/Es, there is a real need for rescue. This discussion examines three possible ways in which the market might be saved from decline: high and sustained real earnings growth (which are highly unlikely), low interest rates (which help only in the short term), or investor acceptance of lower future rates of return. The last possibility boils down to a choice between low long-term returns forever and very low (crash-type) returns followed by more historically normal returns. The research presented here found some support that investors should accept a 6–7 percent nominal stock return, but evidence indicates that investors do not actually think they are facing such low returns.