Further estimates of radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone changes
Further estimates of radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone changes
复制标题
对对流层臭氧变化引起的辐射强迫的进一步估计
DOI：
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Shine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Forster;Colin Johnson;K. Law;J. Pyle;K. Shine
利用两个二维（纬度-高度）化学输送模式对自工业化前以来对流层臭氧浓度变化的估计，计算了由于这些变化而产生的辐射强迫。臭氧变化来自剑桥（CAMB）和美国。K.气象局（UKMO）模型。使用UKMO变化的全球和年平均强迫为0.3 Wm−2，使用CAMB变化的全球和年平均强迫为0.5 Wm−2。UKMO的臭氧变化通常是CAMB的60%，这完全解释了不同的强迫。虽然不确定性很大，但计算结果继续支持对流层臭氧变化对总温室气体辐射强迫的贡献很大（约15%）的情况。在辐射强迫计算中，忽略云和平流层调整的影响，导致对全球平均强迫的高估约66%。
Estimates from two 2-D (latitude - height) chemical transport models of changes in tropospheric ozone concentrations since pre-industrial times were used to calculate the radiative forcing due to these changes. The ozone changes are from Cambridge (CAMB) and the U. K. Meteorological Office (UKMO) models. The global and annual mean forcing using the UKMO changes was 0.3 Wm−2 and was 0.5 Wm−2 using the CAMB changes. The UKMO ozone changes are typically 60% of those from CAMB and this entirely accounts for the different forcing. Although the uncertainty is large, the calculations continue to support the case that tropospheric ozone changes make a substantial contribution (about 15%) to the total greenhouse gas radiative forcing. It is also shown that ignoring cloud and the effects of stratospheric adjustment in the radiative forcing calculations leads to an over-estimation of the forcing by about 66%, for the global average.