Importance of thermodynamic conditions in extreme precipitation events in the city of Belem and metropolitan region-猫眼课题宝

贝伦市和大都市区极端降水事件中热力学条件的重要性

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2018

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Felipe do Souto de Sá Gille;M. A. S. Mota

潜热的释放是热带大气中扰动发展的主要来源之一，因为由于温度梯度也很小，势能的储存很小。释放的潜热越多，与对流系统有关。除了潜热外，必须考虑的其他能源是表面热流和红外辐射。Neelin和Held1对这些参数进行了研究，验证了这两个参数的变化控制了大气辐合，当然也通过它们在大气静态湿能量供应中的共同作用控制了降水。为了更好地了解热带大气和改进预报模式，Rennó和Williams2将热带大气中对流和深对流的有效势能(CAPE)的增加与抑制能对流(ISCED)和混合过程的减少联系在一起，因为它们破坏了正浮力。产生这种浮力所需的热量从表层移走，一部分热量被输送到自由大气层，从那里被辐射到空间。3这种能量的平衡被转化为机械功，用于维持对流运动。这种对流运动产生的功的量给出了海角静态平衡量的测量，它随着表面温度的增加而增加。除了CAPE和CINE，风切变和相对湿度等参数对深对流的发展也很重要。4热带亚马逊雨季是由天气系统的影响启动的，天气系统的影响是行星边界层(CLP)湿度的增加和顶部温度的降低，从而减少了ISCED。因此，了解是什么控制了这种深对流的变化，对于确定降水的季节性是必要的。雨季的开始不仅取决于环境的能源，1如CAPE所示，还取决于动态条件，如地块上升和风切变的移动，释放出环境中的能量以促进深对流的发展。6、7有组织对流系统在季节尺度上的增长，如东波7、8或季节内振荡9、10取决于这些系统释放到大气中的能量以及能量提取的方式。地表温度的变化有时并不直接影响对流的开始，而是引起环流的变化，从而影响对流的发展。11中尺度系统通过风切变产生的开普角加强了当地对流活动，这有利于风暴的形成，因为当地的热力条件与对流的深度和持续时间有关。12 Betts等人，13报告了强雷暴，从旱季过渡到雨季，雨季开始时，开普敦几乎所有亚马逊地区。因此，他们得出结论，在开普敦很高的情况下，发生风暴的可能性非常高。但是，CAPE值并不总是很大，这与强降水有关。14重要的是评估“国际标准分类法”的值，它可以表明不稳定的减弱条件，从而不允许发展深对流，从而形成风暴。贝伦市(宾夕法尼亚州)代表着亚马逊地区最大的城市群，该地区的入住率最高。15这也是雷尼尔地区之一，拥有近3000毫米。为了研究有助于风暴形成的参数，Tavares&Mota16对各种热力学指数进行了研究。他们证实，CAPE和《国际教育标准分类法》适用于雨季的贝伦市，但有必要考虑到《国际教育标准分类法》，对旱期进行调整。风暴的形成可以与几种气象现象有关，例如作物间辐合带(ITCZ)，这是

The release of latent heat is one of the main sources for the development of disturbances that occur in the tropical atmosphere, because the storage of potential energy is small because the temperature gradient is also small. The greater amount of latent heat released is associated with convective systems. Other sources of energy, besides the latent heat, which must be considered, are the surface heat flux and the infrared radiation. These parameters were studied by Neelin & Held1 where they verified that the variation of these two parameters controls the atmospheric convergence and, of course, the precipitation through their joint effects in the supply of atmospheric static humid energy. In order to better understand the tropical atmosphere and improve forecasting models, Rennó & Williams2 related the increase of Available Potential Energy for Convection (CAPE) and deep convection in the tropical atmosphere, with the decrease of the Inhibition Energy Convection (ISCED) and the mixing process, as they destroy positive buoyancy. The heat needed to generate this buoyancy is removed from the surface layer and a part of it is transported to free atmosphere from where it is irradiated into space.3 The balance of this energy is transformed into mechanical work, which is used in the maintenance of the convective movements. The amount of work produced by this convective motion gives a measure of the amount of static equilibrium of the CAPE, which increases with increasing surface temperature. In addition to CAPE and CINE, parameters such as wind shear and relative humidity are also important for the development of deep convection.4 The rainy season in the Tropical Amazon is initiated by the influence of Synoptic Systems conditioned by the increase of the amount of humidity in the Planetary Boundary Layer (CLP) and the decrease of the temperature at the top, reducing ISCED.5 However, more than 80% of this precipitation comes from deep convection. Thus, understanding what controls changes in this deep convection become necessary to determine the seasonality of precipitation. The beginning of the rainy season will be determined not only by the energy source of the environment, which is indicated by the CAPE,1 but also by dynamic conditions, such as the movement of the ascent of the plot and wind shear, which release the energy from the environment for the development of deep convection.6,7 The growth of organized convective systems on a seasonal scale, such as the eastern waves7,8 or intra-seasonal oscillations9,10 depend on the released energy of these systems into the atmosphere and how the energy extraction is done. Surface temperature changes sometimes do not directly affect the onset of convection but are responsible for changes in circulation and thus affect the development of convection. Therefore, the thermodynamic conditions modulate the frequency and intensity of the plot’s buoyancy.11 The meso and large-scale systems intensify the local convective activity through wind shear generating CAPE, which favors the formation of storms, since the local thermodynamic conditions are related to the depth and longevity of the convection.12 Betts et al.,13 reported strong thunderstorms with the transition period from the dry season to the rainy season and the onset of the rainy season when CAPE is highest in almost all Amazonian sites. Therefore, they concluded that with a high CAPE the probability of a storm would be very high. However, not always large CAPE values are related to strong precipitation.14 It is important to evaluate the ISCED values that could indicate the weakening conditions of the instability, thus not allowing the development of deep convection and consequently the formation of the storm. The city of Belém (PA) represents the largest urban agglomeration in the Amazon, in this region the highest occupancy rates were registered.15 This is also one of the rainier regions with almost 3000mm.Ano-1. In order to study the parameters that contribute to the formation of storms, Tavares & Mota16 carried out a study of the various thermodynamic indices. They verified that the CAPE and the ISCED are suitable for the city of Belém, for the rainy season, but it is necessary to make an adjustment for the dry period taking into account the ISCED. The formation of storms can be associated to several meteorological phenomena, such as the Intercropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which is one of the

Importance of thermodynamic conditions in extreme precipitation events in the city of Belem and metropolitan region

贝伦市和大都市区极端降水事件中热力学条件的重要性

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