Estimation of incubation period distribution of COVID-19 using disease onset forward time: A novel cross-sectional and forward follow-up study
Estimation of incubation period distribution of COVID-19 using disease onset forward time: A novel cross-sectional and forward follow-up study
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.abc1202
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发表时间：
2020-08-01
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Zhou, Xiao-Hua
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qin, Jing;You, Chong;Zhou, Xiao-Hua
我们提出了一种新的、准确的低成本方法，通过进行横断面和前瞻性随访研究来估计COVID-19的潜伏期分布。我们在这些症状前个体离开武汉时对其进行了识别，并对其进行了跟踪，直到出现症状。通过将潜伏期视为更新，将离开和症状发作之间的持续时间视为向前时间，采用更新过程。这种方法通过减少回忆偏差和使用容易获得的数据来提高估计的准确性。估计的中位潜伏期为7.76天[95%置信区间（CI）：7.02 - 8.53]，第90百分位数为14.28天（95% CI：13.64 - 14.90）。如果把一小部分患者在离开武汉途中感染这种疾病的可能性包括在内，估计潜伏期超过14天的可能性在5%至10%之间。
We have proposed a novel, accurate low-cost method to estimate the incubation-period distribution of COVID-19 by conducting a cross-sectional and forward follow-up study. We identified those presymptomatic individuals at their time of departure from Wuhan and followed them until the development of symptoms. The renewal process was adopted by considering the incubation period as a renewal and the duration between departure and symptoms onset as a forward time. Such a method enhances the accuracy of estimation by reducing recall bias and using the readily available data. The estimated median incubation period was 7.76 days [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.02 to 8.53], and the 90th percentile was 14.28 days (95% CI:13.64 to 14.90). By including the possibility that a small portion of patients may contract the disease on their way out of Wuhan, the estimated probability that the incubation period is longer than 14 days was between 5 and 10%.