Sexual Mixing in Shanghai: Are Heterosexual Contact Patterns Compatible With an HIV/AIDS Epidemic?
Sexual Mixing in Shanghai: Are Heterosexual Contact Patterns Compatible With an HIV/AIDS Epidemic?
复制标题
上海的性混合：异性接触模式与艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行相适应吗？
DOI：
10.1007/s13524-015-0383-4
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Gauthier,Robin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Merli,MGiovanna;Moody,James;Mendelsohn,Joshua;Gauthier,Robin
中国艾滋病病毒感染率较低，主要集中在女性性工作者、嫖客、男男性行为者以及这些高危人群的稳定伴侣中。我们评估了中国异性恋关系制度、异性恋网络结构和关键人群属性对艾滋病传播的贡献，模拟数据来自上海普通人群自我中心性网络的横断面调查和同时来自受调查者驱动的FSWs样本。研究发现，经实证校准的异性恋网络具有较低的伴侣变化水平，年龄和教育程度对伴侣选择的约束较强，且连接核心很小，主要由fsw及其客户组成，且具有脆弱的传递结构。这一网络的艾滋病毒流行可能性很小，但与细菌性传播感染（STIs）的传播兼容，例如梅毒，后者在感染传播中不太容易受到结构性断裂的影响。我们的研究结果表明，迫使性交易转入地下的政策可能会对艾滋病毒和其他性传播疾病的传播产生不利影响。
China’s HIV prevalence is low, mainly concentrated among female sex workers (FSWs), their clients, men who have sex with men, and the stable partners of members of these high-risk groups. We evaluate the contribution to the spread of HIV of China’s regime of heterosexual relations, of the structure of heterosexual networks, and of the attributes of key population groups with simulations driven by data from a cross-sectional survey of egocentric sexual networks of the general population of Shanghai and from a concurrent respondent-driven sample of FSWs. We find that the heterosexual network generated by our empirically calibrated simulations has low levels of partner change, strong constraints on partner selection by age and education, and a very small connected core, mainly comprising FSWs and their clients and characterized by a fragile transmission structure. This network has a small HIV epidemic potential but is compatible with the transmission of bacterial sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as syphilis, which are less susceptible to structural breaks in transmission of infection. Our results suggest that policies that force commercial sex underground could have an adverse effect on the spread of HIV and other STIs.