The impact of public perception of earthquake risk on Istanbul's housing market
The impact of public perception of earthquake risk on Istanbul's housing market
复制标题
公众对地震风险的认知对伊斯坦布尔房地产市场的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
B. Keskin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zeynep Önder;V. Dokmeci;B. Keskin
本文通过调查1995年至2000年伊斯坦布尔平均房价的空间分布和平均房价的变化，考察了公众对地震风险的感知对伊斯坦布尔住房市场的影响。土壤类型和到马尔马拉海断层线的距离被用来作为公众感知地震风险的指标。回归分析的结果表明，离断层线的距离是解释房价的一个重要因素，1999年科凯利地震后，距离断层线对房价的影响有所增加。此外，土壤类型与房价之间存在二次曲线关系。然而，所有衡量地震风险的指标都没有显著影响房屋价值的变化。这些发现表明，公众对地震风险的感知增强，公众关于地震风险的信息对房屋价值有显著影响。
This paper examines the impact of public perception of earthquake risk on Istanbul's housing market by investigating the spatial distribution of the average house values and the changes in average house prices in Istanbul between 1995 and 2000. Soil type and distance to the fault lines in the Sea of Marmara are used as proxies for public perception of earthquake risk. The results of regression analysis show that distance from fault lines is an important factor in explaining house values and its impact on house values increased after the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake. Furthermore, there is a quadratic relationship between soil type and house values. However, none of the measures of earthquake risk significantly affect the change in house values. These findings suggest that public perception of earthquake risk enhanced and the public information about earthquake hazard had significant impact on house values.