Revisions to PCE Inflation Measures: Implications for Monetary Policy
Revisions to PCE Inflation Measures: Implications for Monetary Policy
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PCE通胀措施的修订：对货币政策的影响
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.1138005
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发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Croushore
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
D. Croushore
本文考察了以个人消费支出价格指数（包括和不包括食品和能源价格）衡量的通货膨胀率修正的特点。这些数据系列在联邦的通货膨胀分析中起着重要作用。作者研究了PCE通货膨胀率的修正幅度和模式。他提出的第一个问题是：数据修订是什么样子的？作者运行了各种测试，以查看数据修订是否具有所需或可利用的属性。他提出的第二个问题与第一个问题有关：我们能否预测真实的数据修正？答案是，可以预测从最初发布到次年8月的修订。一般来说，最初公布的通货膨胀率太低，很可能会被向上修正。政策制定者在制定货币政策时应该考虑到这种可预测性。
This paper examines the characteristics of the revisions to the inflation rate as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index both including and excluding food and energy prices. These data series play a major role in the Federal Reserve’s analysis of inflation. ; The author examines the magnitude and patterns of revisions to both PCE inflation rates. The first question he poses is: What do data revisions look like? The author runs a variety of tests to see if the data revisions have desirable or exploitable properties. The second question he poses is related to the first: Can we forecast data revisions in real time? The answer is that it is possible to forecast revisions from the initial release to August of the following year. Generally, the initial release of inflation is too low and is likely to be revised up. Policymakers should account for this predictability in setting monetary policy.