Modeling the Future Effects of a Menthol Ban on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths in the United States
Modeling the Future Effects of a Menthol Ban on Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths in the United States
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DOI：
10.2105/ajph.2011.300179
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发表时间：
2011-07-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Abrams, David B.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Levy, David T.;Pearson, Jennifer L.;Abrams, David B.
我们使用了一个经过验证的吸烟模拟模型和2003年烟草使用补充当前人口调查的数据来预测美国薄荷醇禁令对吸烟流行率和吸烟导致的死亡的影响。假设30%的薄荷醇吸烟者戒烟，30%的薄荷醇吸烟者没有开始吸烟，到2050年，吸烟率的相对下降将是9.7%，黑人为24.8%;避免的死亡人数将是633252人，黑人为237317人。(Am J公共卫生。2011;101：1236-1240。doi：10. 2011.300179）
We used a validated smoking simulation model and data from the 2003 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey to project the impact that a US menthol ban would have on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths. In a scenario in which 30% of menthol smokers quit and 30% of those who would have initiated as menthol smokers do not initiate, by 2050 the relative reduction in smoking prevalence would be 9.7% overall and 24.8% for Blacks; deaths averted would be 633252 overall and 237317 for Blacks. (Am J Public Health. 2011;101:1236-1240. doi:10. 2105/AJPH.2011.300179)