HIV/AIDS-related Expectations and Risky Sexual Behaviour in Malawi
HIV/AIDS-related Expectations and Risky Sexual Behaviour in Malawi
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DOI：
10.1093/restud/rdv028
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发表时间：
2016-01-01
影响因子：
5.8
通讯作者：
Kohler, Hans-Peter
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Delavande, Adeline;Kohler, Hans-Peter
我们使用从马拉维农村调查受访者中获得的概率期望数据来调查个人对生存和未来艾滋病毒状况的预期如何影响危险的性行为，这反过来又取决于对艾滋病毒/艾滋病对生存的感知影响、对自己和伴侣目前艾滋病毒状况的预期以及对艾滋病毒传播率的预期。主观预期，特别是对死亡风险的预期，而不是对感染艾滋病毒风险的预期，在决定是否拥有多个性伴侣方面发挥着重要作用。使用我们估计的参数，我们模拟了可能影响预期的各种政策的影响。关于死亡风险的宣传运动平均会减少危险的性行为，而关于艾滋病毒传播风险的宣传运动往往被答复者高估，实际上会增加危险行为。此外，将抗逆转录病毒疗法扩大到所有艾滋病毒感染者，将使四分之一的艾滋病毒阴性者或未接受检测者的危险性行为增加，因为他们知道抗逆转录病毒疗法可以延长预期寿命，从而降低成为艾滋病毒阳性者的成本。
We use probabilistic expectations data elicited from survey respondents in rural Malawi to investigate how risky sexual behaviour may be influenced by individuals' expectations about survival, and future HIV status, which in turn depend on the perceived impact of HIV/AIDS on survival, expectations about own and partner's current HIV status, and expectations about HIV transmission rates. Subjective expectations, in particular about mortality risk but not the risk of living with HIV, play an important role in determining the decision to have multiple sexual partners. Using our estimated parameters, we simulate the impact of various policies that would influence expectations. An information campaign on mortality risk would decrease risky sexual behaviour on average, whereas an information campaign on HIV transmission risks, which tend to be overestimated by respondents, would actually increase risky behaviour. Also, the expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) treatments to all individuals infected with HIV would increase risky sexual behaviour for a quarter of the HIV-negative individuals or those who have not been tested because they are aware that ART increases life expectancy, and thus reduces the cost of becoming HIV positive.