Calibrating parametric subject-specific risk estimation
Calibrating parametric subject-specific risk estimation
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DOI：
10.1093/biomet/asq012
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发表时间：
2010-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Wei, L. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cai, T.;Tian, L.;Wei, L. J.
对于现代循证医学来说，疾病预防或管理策略的决策通常以风险指数系统为指导。对于每个人，系统使用他/她的基线信息来估计经历未来疾病相关临床事件的风险。这种风险评分方案通常源自过于简化的参数模型。为了验证基于模型的程序，可以通过例如接收器操作特性分析来执行标准全局评估。在本文中，我们提出了一种在主题层面校准风险指标体系的方法。具体来说，我们根据估计的参数风险评分制定了 t 年死亡率的点和区间估计程序。这些建议通过一项针对心肌梗塞后患者的大型临床试验的数据集进行了说明。
For modern evidence-based medicine, decisions on disease prevention or management strategies are often guided by a risk index system. For each individual, the system uses his/her baseline information to estimate the risk of experiencing a future disease-related clinical event. Such a risk scoring scheme is usually derived from an overly simplified parametric model. To validate a model-based procedure, one may perform a standard global evaluation via, for instance, a receiver operating characteristic analysis. In this article, we propose a method to calibrate the risk index system at a subject level. Specifically, we developed point and interval estimation procedures for t-year mortality rates conditional on the estimated parametric risk score. The proposals are illustrated with a dataset from a large clinical trial with post-myocardial infarction patients.