Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100
Upper limit for sea level projections by 2100
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/9/10/104008
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发表时间：
2014-10-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Moore, J. C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jevrejeva, S.;Grinsted, A.;Moore, J. C.
我们构造了2100年全球海平面的概率密度函数，估计海平面上升大于180厘米的概率小于5%。全球海平面上升的上限为190厘米，这是通过将基于过程的模型与RCP8.5情景模拟的各个海平面上升部分的最高估计相加而形成的。这两种方法之间的一致可能表明了比应有的更多的信心，因为由于缺乏冰盖动力学模型对情景的预测，特别是南极洲海洋快速流动出口冰川的质量损失，仍然存在很大的不确定性。这导致了在全球平均海平面上升的概率分布中很难量化肥尾。因此，我们对海平面预测的低概率上限不能被认为是决定性的。然而，我们对2100年海平面上升180厘米的上限是基于专家意见和过程研究，因此表明需要其他方面的证据来证明本世纪海平面上升幅度更大。
We construct the probability density function of global sea level at 2100, estimating that sea level rises larger than 180 cm are less than 5% probable. An upper limit for global sea level rise of 190 cm is assembled by summing the highest estimates of individual sea level rise components simulated by process based models with the RCP8.5 scenario. The agreement between the methods may suggest more confidence than is warranted since large uncertainties remain due to the lack of scenario-dependent projections from ice sheet dynamical models, particularly for mass loss from marine-based fast flowing outlet glaciers in Antarctica. This leads to an intrinsically hard to quantify fat tail in the probability distribution for global mean sea level rise. Thus our low probability upper limit of sea level projections cannot be considered definitive. Nevertheless, our upper limit of 180 cm for sea level rise by 2100 is based on both expert opinion and process studies and hence indicates that other lines of evidence are needed to justify a larger sea level rise this century.