META-X: Generic Software for Metapopulation Viability Analysis
META-X: Generic Software for Metapopulation Viability Analysis
复制标题
META-X：用于种群活力分析的通用软件
DOI：
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发表时间：
2004
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
K. Frank
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
V. Grimm;H. Lorek;Jens Finke;F. Koester;Michael Malachinski;M. Sonnenschein;A. Moilanen;I. Storch;A. Singer;C. Wissel;K. Frank
种群生存力分析（PVA）定量化的主要工具是种群动态的随机模型。由于不可能为每一个受威胁的人口建立一个专门的模型，因此设计了通用模型，非建模人员可以对这些模型进行参数化和分析。这些通用模型在细节上进行了妥协，以便它们可以用于广泛的物种。然而，通用模型一直受到批评，因为它们可以在用户没有充分意识到PVA的概念，方法，潜力和局限性的情况下使用。在这里，我们提出了一个新的通用软件包的概念集合种群生存能力分析，META-X。这一概念基于三个要素，其中考虑到早期的通用PVA模型的批评：（1）比较模拟实验;（2）一个占领型模型结构，忽略了当地人口动态的细节（这些细节被集成在外部子模型）;和（3）一个统一的货币，以量化持久性和可行性，“内在的平均时间到灭绝”。这三个要素背后的理由解释和示范应用META-X在三个领域的META-X已被设计：教学，风险评估领域，规划。META-X的概念是基于PVA是一种处理而不是克服不确定性的工具的概念。PVA的目的是产生相对的，而不是绝对的，灭绝风险的评估，支持，但不取代，管理决策。
The major tools used to make population viability analyses (PVA) quantitative are stochastic models of population dynamics. Since a specially tailored model cannot be developed for every threatened population, generic models have been designed which can be parameterised and analysed by non-modellers. These generic models compromise on detail so that they can be used for a wide range of species. However, generic models have been criticised because they can be employed without the user being fully aware of the concepts, methods, potentials, and limitations of PVA. Here, we present the conception of a new generic software package for metapopulation viability analysis, META-X. This conception is based on three elements, which take into account the criticism of earlier generic PVA models: (1) comparative simulation experiments; (2) an occupancy-type model structure which ignores details of local population dynamics (these details are integrated in external submodels); and (3) a unifying currency to quantify persistence and viability, the ‘intrinsic mean time to extinction’. The rationale behind these three elements is explained and demonstrated by exemplary applications of META-X in the three fields for which META-X has been designed: teaching, risk assessment in the field, and planning. The conception of META-X is based on the notion that PVA is a tool to deal with rather than to overcome uncertainty. The purpose of PVA is to produce relative, not absolute, assessments of extinction risk which support, but do not supplant, management decisions.